Fate of Tester and Schumer’s Senate majority could hinge on Montana abortion initiative

A proposed state constitutional amendment on abortion access could boost Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) reelection chances in Montana if added to next year’s ballot.

Favorable results for abortion rights activists in off-year ballot initiatives in Ohio and Kansas have prompted some Democratically-aligned groups to push for similar questions to be posed to voters in Montana, where Tester’s race will likely decide control of the U.S. Senate.

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Planned Parenthood Action Fund submitted a ballot initiative in the Treasure State late last month that, if affirmed, would enshrine Montanans with the right to make decisions about their pregnancy, including if they want to obtain an abortion, in the state constitution.

Getting the question added to the 2024 ballot will be an intensive and lengthy process, but if successful, it will be a major boon to Democrats’ hopes of keeping their Senate majority.

Matthew Brown/AP

A spokesperson for Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), who has funded campaigns to get abortion rights referendums on the ballots in Nevada and Ohio through his Think Big America group, said he is likely to get behind the Montana effort.

Representatives for Think Big America did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.

Tester became the Democratic Party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent following Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) announcement last month that he wouldn’t seek a second term. Without Manchin in the race, the party’s task of keeping its 51-49 majority comes down to Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Republicans only have 10 incumbents up for reelection this cycle, while Democrats have 23.

Manchin, Tester, and Brown represent states where former President Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2020 by strong margins.

If either Tester or Brown lose without Democrats picking up long-shot seats elsewhere on the map, Republicans will retake control of the upper chamber and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) would lose power.

Tester opting to seek a fourth term in and of itself was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. The formidable incumbent has not deterred Senate GOP leadership from pouring significant resources into the contest.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), has thrown its support behind former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a wealthy entrepreneur who is expected to partially self-fund his bid.

Sheehy also has the support of other home state officials, including Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT). But the possible entrance of another Montana lawmaker, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), into the race threatens to create a contentious primary that could weaken the winner going into the general election.

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The party establishment has said Rosendale’s 2018 loss to Tester proves he cannot win statewide, though that has not deterred the House lawmaker from hiring staff and fundraising.

Regardless of what happens in the GOP primary, Tester’s reelection chances could benefit from the addition of a ballot question on abortion access, which has proven to be successful for Democrats in red states.