Five House races to watch in California

While the Golden State has not been competitive in statewide elections for more than a decade, control of the House of Representatives after the 2024 election may rest with key races in California.

Several of them are expected to have razor-thin margins, while one race will be to replace a former House speaker who left Congress at the end of 2023. Here are five congressional races to watch in California in 2024.

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California’s 13th Congressional District

Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) is looking to win a second term in the House of Representatives after pulling off an upset in the 2022 election in his district.

Duarte represents a central California district that includes Merced County, along with parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties. The district has a partisan voting index of Democrat +4, according to the Cook Political Report, but voted for Republicans in both the gubernatorial (54.2%-45.8%) and Senate elections (51%-49%) in 2022. The district is majority Hispanic or Latino, per the U.S. Census Bureau, at roughly 66% of the population, while 21% is white and 6.6% is Asian.

Former Democratic state Assemblyman Adam Gray is challenging Duarte in a rematch of the 2022 election, which saw the Republican prevail by less than 600 votes, or 0.4%. Duarte and Gray are the only two people on the certified list of candidates, meaning a rematch in November appears inevitable.

California’s 20th Congressional District

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy‘s old seat is widely expected to stay in Republican hands, but which Republican fills the seat will be an intriguing battle on the ballot — or to get on the ballot.

Republican state Assemblyman Vince Fong was picked as the heir apparent to McCarthy, snagging the former House speaker’s endorsement, but he may face difficulty remaining on the ballot. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber ruled that Fong was ineligible to appear on the congressional ballot because he was already on the ballot for reelection to his Assembly seat, and California election code prevents candidates from appearing on the ballot twice.

Fong had initially opted not to run for the seat, allowing another McCarthy protege, Republican state Sen. Shannon Grove, to run for the seat, but when she opted out, Fong entered the race. By the time Fong entered the race for the 20th District, the deadline to remove his name from the state Assembly ballot had passed.

Weber’s decision to remove him from the ballot was challenged by Fong in court, and the Sacramento Superior Court ruled in late December that the California election code Weber cited to remove Fong did not apply. Weber has said her office will appeal the ruling, meaning Fong’s ability to remain on the March ballot could still be in jeopardy. In the interim, Weber has included Fong on the March primary ballot because of the court order.

Other Republicans hoping to take McCarthy’s former seat include David Giglio, Kelly Kulikoff, Stan Ellis, Mike Boudreaux, and Matthew Stoll, according to the certified list of candidates. Democrats seeking the seat include Andy Morales and Marisa Wood, who ran against McCarthy in the 2022 general election.

California’s 22nd Congressional District

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) will likely face a spirited challenge for his seat in November as one of several Republicans representing districts with net Democratic partisan voting indexes. The partisan voting index for California’s 22nd District is Democratic +5, per the Cook Political Report, making it one of the most Democratic seats currently represented by a Republican in the 118th Congress.

The district, which includes Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties, split between Republican and Democratic candidates in the 2022 election. Voters elected Valadao over Democrat Rudy Salas 51.6%-48.4% for the House seat and voted for Republican Brian Dahle over Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) in the gubernatorial race but helped elect Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) to a full term over Republican Mark Meuser, 51.2%-48.8%.

Including 2022, the past three elections for Valadao have been tight races, with him winning two of the three contests. He lost his seat narrowly in 2018 to Democrat TJ Cox, 50.4%-49.6%, but then won his seat back from Cox in 2020 by the same margin.

The candidates challenging Valadao include Salas, Democrat Melissa Hurtado, and Republican Chris Mathys, according to the certified list of candidates.

California’s 27th Congressional District

Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) is another incumbent Republican facing a tough reelection bid in a Democratic-leaning district.

The Golden State’s 27th District is in Southern California, encompassing the northern part of Los Angeles County, and has a partisan voting index of Democratic +4, according to the Cook Political Report. The district has no majority racial or ethnic group, with Hispanics and Latinos making up 45.5% of the population and whites making up 30.6%, according to the Census Bureau.

Garcia won reelection to his seat in 2022 by defeating Democrat Christy Smith for a third consecutive time. That same year, the gubernatorial and Senate races were split between Republican and Democratic candidates, with margins tighter than Garcia’s 6.4% victory.

The candidates challenging Garcia include Democrats Steve Hill and George Whitesides.

California’s 47th Congressional District

In a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans, Democrats will look to hold on to the state’s 47th District, which is currently held by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who is running for the Senate.

The Southern California district has a partisan voting index of Democratic +3, but it is one of the seats targeted by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The district encompasses much of the coastal parts of Orange County, including the cities of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach, as well as Irvine.

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The mix of the coastal parts of Orange County favoring Republicans and Irvine being dominated by Democrats makes for a highly competitive district. In 2022, the district voted by slim margins for both Porter and Padilla in the House and Senate races but voted for Dahle over Newsom in the gubernatorial race by a similarly narrow margin.

The candidates looking to succeed Porter include Democrats Dave Min, Boyd Roberts, Joanna Weiss, and Shariq Zaidi and Republicans Scott Baugh, Long Pham, and Max Ukropina. Baugh ran against Porter in 2022 and lost 51.7%-48.3%.