Republican presidential hopefuls have been campaigning across all 99 of Iowa’s counties ahead of the caucuses, but some could carry more political weight than others.
Former President Donald Trump is expected to win the state by a comfortable margin on Monday night. But Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are aiming to pick up some delegates with a show of strength in the suburbs and among evangelical voters.
Here are five counties to watch in the Hawkeye State on Monday night:
Buena Vista County
The rural county of Buena Vista could be a test for both Trump and DeSantis, who are hoping to pick up rural votes. The county, which boasts a large Latino population, could also give insight into where Latino voters are leaning. Minorities, including Latinos, have historically supported the Democrats, but they have been moving toward the Republicans.
Buena Vista County largely supported Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2016, but Trump placed second.
Linn County
Linn County is largely suburban but includes Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Suburban voters, and particularly women, are a key plank of Haley’s base. How Linn County goes on Monday could be a harbinger for her campaign. A victory would help secure her as the suburban favorite in Iowa.
The county voted for Cruz in 2016.
Polk County
The populous Polk County could mark a major win for Haley or DeSantis on Monday as local voters tend to back more traditional Republicans. The county, which includes the state capital of Des Moines, Iowa, could demonstrate Gov. Kim Reynolds’s (R-IA) strength within her own party if it goes to DeSantis, or it could boost Haley’s relationship with suburban voters if she wins.
The county voted for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in 2016.
Scott County
Winning the support of the highly educated suburban voters in Scott County would be an important victory for Haley and could help her finish the caucuses in second place.
Suburban voters are not expected to vote for Trump, who gets a larger turnout among blue-collar voters. The eastern county voted for Rubio in 2016.
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Sioux County
Sioux County is an important county for DeSantis, who is trying to pull the evangelical vote. The county was Trump’s weakest in 2016, but he could make up ground there on Monday. The road for DeSantis to win is steep, with Trump leading among evangelicals in Iowa by nearly 30%, according to the Des Moines Register.
Trump only received 11% of the vote in the county in 2016, and Cruz narrowly won the county against Rubio.