On a crisp May night, New York Yankees fans witnessed two men unfurl a flag with former President Donald Trump’s mug shot and the words “Never Surrender” on it from the upper deck of Yankee Stadium. With news of Trump’s then-upcoming speech in the South Bronx, even baseball fans couldn’t escape the fact that Trump was beginning to campaign in the Empire State while his hush money trial continued downtown.

Since his first campaign event at a Harlem bodega April 16, he’s made many New York pitstops, including at a construction stop and a pizza shop, all of which have generated much buzz.

All the buzz, however, doesn’t mean Trump will win New York — he didn’t in 2016 or 2020, losing the state by over 20 points in both races — but polls between him and President Joe Biden have begun to tighten in the state, which might make way for him to compete. Current polls show Biden with only a 10-point lead this time around.

Nevertheless, there’s a chorus of political figures who say he can’t win.

“Trump has no chance whatsoever to win New York,” political strategist Larry Levy told the Washington Examiner.  

“Anybody who tells you that is blowing smoke for one reason or another, ranging from not having any idea what they’re talking about to very cleverly trying to increase the panic you’re already seeing among Democrats around the country,” he continued.

And it’s a decisive chorus, especially among Democrats.

“New York will never, ever support Donald Trump for president,” Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) said in a CNN interview. “We know him better than anyone, and that means we understand what he’s all about — he’s just for himself. 

Hochul was narrowly elected to a full term in 2022, facing surprising competition from former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. He still lost the race by about 6.4%. Democrats before Hochul have regularly seen victories with well over 10 points.

In a normal election year, the Republican candidate for president might have little chance of winning historically blue New York. A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But Trump’s hush money trial, in which he was recently convicted, has forced the former president to spend time in his home state. 

Whether voters rally around Trump’s “politically motivated” trial or the frustration with Biden, Trump has had considerably closer polling in New York with the president than at most points during the 2020 cycle. Two May polls saw Trump within single digits of Biden, a far departure from the last election. For most of May 2020, Biden led by about 25 to 26 points on average.

That hasn’t swayed optimism from the state’s Republicans, who made sure to voice their support for Trump’s South Bronx rally on May 23.

“New York is in play and we had all planned to be there to greet him and attend this historic event…New York will vote for Trump and House Republicans to save America this November,” a joint statement from all New York House Republicans, except Reps. Brandon Williams (R-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY), said.

Trump’s own campaign, which hopes to draw support from minorities in the city, reiterated their message.

“We are witnessing tremendous momentum and enthusiasm from black and brown communities all over the country, even in blue states like New York and New Jersey,” Janiyah Thomas, Black Media Director for the Trump campaign, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

“President Trump is up to 23% in the polls with black voters, a record high that we haven’t seen for a Republican nominee in decades,” the statement continued.

Trump’s rare New York City rally had a permit for 3,500 people, according to the New York Times, and was his first rally in New York state since 2016.

“Under Crooked Joe Biden, New Yorkers have faced a 17.5% rise in prices, with families spending significantly more on necessities like food, housing, and electricity,” Thomas said. “Violent crime has surged, with murders up 23.1% and felony assaults up 35.4% in New York City since 2019. Black and Brown neighborhoods are disproportionately affected by inflation and rising crime rates, endangering the safety and well-being of our families.”

“President Trump is committed to easing these financial burdens and restoring law and order, ensuring safer, more prosperous futures for all communities,” Thomas added. “By going to the South Bronx, President Trump is willing to do what Joe Biden can’t: meet people where they’re at.”

Bronx-native Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) disagreed with that sentiment and said Trump is so unpopular in the borough that his “approval ratings are lower than that of lead and arsenic.”

The rally took place in an area that Trump will need to siphon some voters from in order to be competitive in the state. Zeldin was only able to win 22% of the vote from the Bronx, though he still managed to swing the county by 12 points more than Trump in 2020. He outperformed Trump in every New York City county, most critically Brooklyn’s Kings County, which is very much in Democrats’ hands.

“There are just too many Democrats, and his negatives are too unmovable in NY for [Trump] to go any higher than he is now, and I doubt he will spend 5 cents trying to move them,” strategist Levy said. New York has about 6.4 million registered Democrats, 2.9 million registered Republicans, and about 950,000 other registered voters as of February.

Zeldin’s performance might be more indicative of New Yorkers’ frustration with the Democratic trifecta in place since 2019 than Trump’s future success in the state. However, New York GOP Chairman Ed Cox sees Zeldin’s gains as a good sign for Trump’s chances in the state.

“What [Zeldin’s competitiveness] showed was that New York really is ready for a change,” Cox told the Washington Examiner.

Democrats have held the majority in the Assembly and state Senate since 1975 and 2019, respectively, but lost five seats in the Assembly and one seat in the Senate to Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections.

“One of the reasons Republicans did as well as they did in New York in 2022 was a relatively poor performance by Gov. Hochul, whose coattails were more like chains for down-ballot candidates,” Levy said.

Trump and other Republicans have another card to play in this election that they didn’t before: Democrats’ handling of the migrant crisis. Thousands of asylum-seekers have entered the city since 2022, and Democrat leadership has struggled to find housing for them, drawing criticism.

“The immigration issue is going to be a bigger issue [than crime in New York],” Cox said. “The migrant crime issue has now melded with the crime issue, and those are two very potent issues … that will help Donald Trump here in New York.”

Cox also agreed that growing support for Trump among Hispanics and African Americans will help him in New York. Levy says polls have shown problems with those demographics for Democrats, and if Trump picks up votes from them, it could “have a major effect on other races in New York.”

“So even if Trump doesn’t come close to winning NY, but does much better than he did for years ago, he can have a major effect on other races in New York,” Levy said. “And, as I mentioned, continue to freak out Democrats as the relative closeness is mostly about ‘leakage’ from some black, Latino, and Asian voters who the Democrats can’t win without.”

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Trump’s first New York campaign stop during his trial was a Harlem bodega in a heavily Hispanic section of the borough where a clerk had been stabbed by an immigrant from the Dominican Republic, a case in which Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who handled Trump’s case, dropped the charges.

“I love this city,” Trump told reporters after emerging from the bodega. “We’re going to straighten New York out.”