The risk of flooding is rising for millions of residents in areas of the Southern Plains this upcoming weekend. According to the FOX Forecast Center, a developing cross-country storm system is forecast to deliver heavy rainfall stretching from the Desert Southwest through the Plains and toward the Deep South, signaling a major change in the prevailing weather pattern.
This winter has been remarkably active along much of the eastern United States, with consecutive storms generating snowfall and ice thanks to the persistent cold air that gripped December, January and the first half of February.
That frigid pattern has now given way to a record-setting warm-up in the central portion of the country, while the Northeast is also beginning to thaw. As a result, the storm this weekend will primarily bring rain that’s much-needed.
Drought conditions persist in many areas of the South and Southern Plains, particularly in Arkansas and parts of Georgia.
A storm system will emerge from Baja California and move through the Southwest and Southern Plains beginning Friday, per the FOX Forecast Center. (RELATED: Multiday Cross-Country Winter Storm Set To Unleash Snow, Rain Over Valentine’s Weekend)
A broad area from eastern Oklahoma to Georgia is anticipated to receive 2–3 inches of rainfall over the weekend. There will also be the potential for scattered thunderstorms in the South.
A low-level flash flood threat for portions of Oklahoma and North Central Texas has been issued for Friday by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
The flash flood risk escalates Saturday as a Level 2 out of 4 threat is in place for areas of Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas — including major city Little Rock.
A total of five inches of rainfall could drop in these zones by the end of the weekend.
🌧️WEEKEND STORM BREWING: The flood threat is increasing for millions across parts of the Southern Plains this weekend. The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a brewing cross-country storm that’s expected to bring heavy rain from the Desert Southwest into the Deep South. Latest… pic.twitter.com/00Bh7X1fmD
— FOX Weather (@foxweather) February 11, 2026
The majority of computer forecast models currently project that the system will track farther south, shifting over the Gulf Coast prior to exiting offshore around the coast of the Southeast.
In a less likely scenario supported by some models, the large storm could take a northern trajectory through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast following a move offshore.
Early next week, a significant dip in the jet stream is anticipated to stall across the West, which will allow a high pressure area to build along the eastern U.S., flipping the dominant weather pattern that has held for the last month.
Once this shift occurs, storm systems will have more favorable conditions to develop in the West. While they track along the central United States, they will strengthen before pushing east. (RELATED: More Snow Headed For Northeast, New England As Active Winter Pattern Continues)
However, if the high pressure gets too dominant, it could deflect storms northward to Canada.
Conversely, if the high pressure shifts toward the weaker side or retreats south, there could be potent storms that head into the Midwest and through the Northeast.
This pattern shift not only increases the likelihood of snowfall in northern regions, but also raises the possibility for severe weather across the South.
A high pressure system located in the Southeast will allow the influx of warmer air and greater instability, setting the stage for more intense thunderstorms.