There is a lot of wild speculation and misinformation coursing through the blogosphere regarding the bombing of a U.S. base in Jordan. I will try to help you understand what we know and what we do not know.

What was the purpose of the base? This base is one of the primary entry points for U.S. military personnel being sent to man bases in Syria. It is a personnel and logistics hub. Think about it. How do the U.S. military personnel at bases inside Syria, like Al Tanf, get there? They do not parachute in and there are no secure airfields. Instead, the U.S. forces fly into Jordan and land at one or more of the seven main Jordanian military airfields:

King Abdullah I Air Base^[23]Amman Civil Airport Marka, Amman, Jordan

King Abdullah II Air Base^[23] Al Ghabawi, Jordan

Zarqa Air Base^[23]Sahel Nassab, Zarqa, Jordan

King Hussein Air Base^[23] Mafraq, Jordan

Muwaffaq Salti Air Base^[23] Azraq, Zarqa, Jordan

Prince Hassan Air Base^[23]

Rweished Air Base^[23]

Rweished Air Base is the closest to the Tower 22 base. Once U.S. forces destined for Syria arrive in Jordan they are then flown most likely by helicopter to the U.S. base at Tower 22. From there they are most likely ferried into Syria via helicopter or truck/armored personnel carrier.

Why Jordan? One of my old, dear friends reminded me of the following:

Larry, your forgetting the “special” relationship (and multiple longtime personal friendships) King Abdullah has with numerous Amcits. He actually speaks English better than he speaks Arabic. He went to a number of U.S. military schools here (like Naval War College) and graduated from Georgetown in the 80’s. Militarily, he’s the real deal – not a paper tiger.

It is no secret that King Abdullah is close with the United States. However, that no longer is a reliable benefit. It is a potential liability. The last thing King Abdullah wants is the world to focus on the fact that he is helping the United States carry out what are essentially oil protection operations in Syria. Illegal operations. And much of the oil winds up inside Israel.

I want to remind you of this article from April 2023. Although it focuses on the oil produced in the Kurdish region of Iraq, this does not mean that U.S. forces at places farther south and west are not also lending a hand in ensuring Israel has a steady supply of petroleum:

Over the past decade, one of Israel’s main sources of crude oil has been Iraq. Despite the lack of diplomatic recognition from Baghdad and years of tension with Ankara, Israel has been a top buyer for oil supplies that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq pumps across southern Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. In turn, producing and selling this oil has helped the KRI maintain partial autonomy from the Iraqi federal government. . . .

Israel’s oil trade with the KRI has been successful in large part because of favorable pricing. The Kurds have sold their oil at a discount compared to the prevailing prices for other Iraqi oil, enabling the traders involved to maintain rewarding margins. In the past, these supplies met a significant part of Israel’s domestic energy needs, but this situation changed once the country began developing its offshore natural gas reserves, which it uses for both electricity generation and export to Egypt and Jordan.

As a result, Israel has been re-exporting some of the KRI crude abroad. After being shipped from Ceyhan, some of the supplies are processed at refineries in Haifa and Ashdod, while others are offloaded south of Ashkelon on the Mediterranean and pumped via pipeline across the country to the Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, they are shipped to customers in Asia, including refiners in China and Taiwan. (This pipeline dates from before Iran’s 1979 revolution, when the shah supplied oil to Israel; its flow has since been reversed and is now operated by the Europe Asia Pipeline Company, or EAPC.)

The U.S. mission in Syria has little to do with fighting and destroying ISIS, a Sunni inspired extremist organization. Here is the party line:

Tower 22, in northeastern Jordan, has “since grown to be able to support expanding missions and conducting operations for the last 10 years,” Abrams said of the post that has now become a major logistical hub for the 900 U.S. troops still in Syria on a mission to prevent a resurgence by Islamic State fighters.

That is basically, in my view, a cover for action. The real purpose, I believe, is to destabilize the Government of Syria and maintain U.S. control over Syrian oil resources. U.S. forces also are in position to monitor and and carry out military operations against Shia tribes with ties to Iran.

We still do not know any specifics about how the bomb was delivered and the size of the explosive. But it was large enough to kill three and wound 47. I have heard conflicting reports. Some say it hit the sleeping quarters of the military personnel deployed to that base. Others suggest it hit the mess hall aka dining facility. The Pentagon and CENTCOM have been strangely coy about not announcing when the attack took place. If it was after 2100 hours Syria time then it is highly unlikely the troops were hanging out in the chow hall.

I have seen some suggest that the three fatalities — Spc. Kennedy L. Sanders, Spc. Breonna A. Moffett, and Sgt. William J. Rivers — all members of 718th Engineer Company, based at Fort Moore, Georgia — were CIA. Utter nonsense. These folks were part of a unit tasked with building and maintaining the infrastructure at outpost Tower 22.

Here is one more thing we know — this was not an Iranian operation. The Pentagon has issued a carefully worded statement saying the group responsible is “Iranian supported.” If the United States had actual evidence implicating Iran in this attack that information would be broadcast loudly and widely. The fact that the Biden Administration is silent on that particular piece of evidence tells you the U.S. is still scrambling to find the slam dunk proof.

Given the U.S. technical intelligence assets in the region — ISR in particular — there is little doubt that the U.S. has pinpointed the location where the bomb/missile was launched. I anticipate that will be the first target hit in the expected U.S. retaliation.

So what was it? What hit the base? A knowledgeable friend opined:

This was either an Iranian missile, or a case of GROSS incompetence/negligence on our part and we got caught with our pants down. If this was just a shit-for-brains Shahed attack drone that managed to get by all our systems because we had some morons at the Patriot control panel, then we truly are in some late-stage empire decline.

If it was a Shahed 136 then this raises a couple of disturbing question — How did it evade radar detection? Were the air defense systems properly manned by trained, competent personnel? Still waiting for those answers.