In the aftermath of Robert F. Kennedy’s withdrawal and subsequent endorsement of former President Donald Trump on Friday, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the Republican nominee will likely gain a boost from the independent’s remaining supporters.
After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, a significant share of Kennedy’s support gravitated towards his replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris. But now that Kennedy has dropped out of the race altogether, experts told the DCNF that his remaining share of supporters disaffected by the Democratic Party are likely to go toward the Republican nominee. (RELATED: Third-Party Candidates Undermined Biden Among Disaffected Dems, But Harris Is A Different Story)
“I think what’s left within the RFK constituency is the people who would be more inclined to support former President Trump, in spite of some, perhaps, misgivings about his executive temperament and past behaviors,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told the DCNF. “My guess is that those people now, if forced to make a choice, will go and support the former president.”
WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 25: Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses the Libertarian Party National Convention at the Washington Hilton on May 25, 2024, in Washington, DC. Trump addressed the convention one day after Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate for president. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
“There is a real phenomenon of voting as a form of protest,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told the DCNF. “Like, voting is a statement of what you could call no confidence or contempt. And now you’re seeing that he’s spoiling Trump. It’s not because he has no path to victory. He has seen that he has no path to victory over and over and over again. But what he is seeing is that of the 3% of people who are voting for him, every one of them is second choice-ing Trump.”
Chand told the DCNF that disaffected voters have also turned away from the Democratic Party in previous election cycles, like when some voters who supported Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Democratic presidential primary bids later backed Trump.
“That’s why in 2016, the Sanders-Trump phenomenon was a very real thing, and why in 2020, similarly, the Sanders voter who is susceptible to Trump persuasion was a very real thing,” Chand told the DCNF. “These are not people who necessarily agree on policy, but these are people who felt profoundly alienated and wanted to express that alienation as a protest vote.” (RELATED: Trump Reportedly Met With RFK Jr. To Discuss Endorsement)
“His remaining voters are people who are not Democratic voters, and this is really important to understand,” Chand told the DCNF. “They’re not voting for this person because they agree with them. Many of them are voting just to strike against a two-party system.”
Although “protest” voters may not have a lot in common ideologically, experts like Chand said that they find common ground attitudinally.
“The common thread is that people think the country is on the wrong track,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “They think Washington is against them and they think the country is ruled by elites that don’t care about the working middle class. They just care about bigger government, and they care about controlling people’s lives. Then, Kennedy made a case for freedom.”
“Maybe they disagree about policies, but they both feel so damaged by the betrayal of American society,” Chand told the DCNF. “They have that feeling in common, and they will pull the levers accordingly.”
Polls in key battleground states have shown the race tightening after the Democratic Party swapped the top of their ticket. At the same time, Kennedy’s polls plummeted from his previous double-digit numbers.
“I think RFK’s vote share hit its highest watermark, not coincidentally, when President Biden was still in the race,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “His highest watermark was also the moment where there were the most so-called ‘double haters’ within the electorate. People who were uncomfortable with both candidates. But I think that, at least at this point, a lot of the disaffected Democrats have come home now to Vice President Harris.” (RELATED: Judge Finds RFK Jr. Can Bring Censorship Lawsuit Against Biden Admin After Supreme Court Rejects States’ Challenge)
Prior to Biden’s withdrawal, Kennedy was polling at 16%, with Trump leading Biden by 5 points, according to a Forbes/HarrisX poll from June. Kennedy’s support dropped to as low as 2% as of early August, according to an Economist/YouGov poll.
While Kennedy’s remaining supporters may be enough to turn the tide in the presidential election, experts like McLaughlin said that his reasoning behind his Trump endorsement may be enough to persuade the undecided voters who hadn’t considered either candidate in the first place.
“If you had 4% or 5% that would go to Trump in a close race, that would make a big difference,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “But I think it’s because of his statement, because of the reasoning for his support for President Trump, it could become even bigger than his base of support. It may affect the 10% of undecided voters as well.”
Foxwell told the DCNF that the race will be down to the wire, and that Kennedy’s effect on the race ultimately depends on whether or not he has significant voter shares in key battleground states.
“I think it depends entirely on where RFK’s voters are state by state,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “For example, if he were to have 4% in New York State or in California, well then it’s inconsequential. The Vice President is going to win those states anyway. Similarly, if he has a vote share in the Deep South and the Bible Belt, well that’s not going to matter either. But if he has a share in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, then that’s an entirely different conversation.”
“There’s an arrogant ruling class in the country, and Trump is running against them,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “Now, so is Robert F. Kennedy. I think this could be a pretty powerful endorsement for the remainder of the campaign.”
The Harris and Trump campaigns did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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