As House Republicans seek to hold on to their slim majority in 2024, the party faces a number of challenges and tough races in key states that could determine who will take control of the lower chamber next year.

All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans — giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.

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However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.

Here’s a breakdown of which Republicans could be most at risk of losing their seat.

Lauren Boebert 

One of the closest House races during the 2022 cycle was in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, in which Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Adam Frisch despite the district leaning heavily Republican. Boebert won by just 546 votes, making it one of the tightest midterm races in the country.

Democrats are eagerly targeting the district again, deeming it as one of the party’s best opportunities to flip a seat blue in 2024. Frisch announced a challenge to Boebert in February and will likely face the GOP incumbent on the ballot next year.

Frisch has already proven to be a strong contender heading into the next election cycle, reporting a massive $2.6 million fundraising haul for the second quarter. That number marks the “largest quarterly fundraising for a U.S. House challenger in the year before an election” except for special elections or self-funded campaigns, according to Frisch’s campaign.

Recent polling also shows Frisch with an advantage over Boebert as 50% of voters said they’d vote for the Democratic challenger over just 48% who said the same about the GOP incumbent, according to a poll released by Frisch’s campaign last month.

George Santos

One of the toughest races Republicans may face next year is the seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which Rep. George Santos (R-NY) flipped during the midterm elections to help secure the GOP majority in the House.

However, Santos now faces an uphill battle for reelection as he fends off a flurry of scandals after fabricating several details about his resume on the campaign trail, including his education and work background. His seat has been rated as “lean Democrat.”

Santos even faces challenges from within his own party as several candidates have lined up to challenge the first-term incumbent in the GOP primary. The seat is one of the Democrats’ top targets in the 2024 cycle, especially as it is slated to be one of the most competitive elections next year.

Santos also finds himself in possible legal trouble, having been indicted by the Justice Department in May on 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds, and lying to Congress. Santos has pleaded not guilty to the charges and dismissed the allegations as politically motivated.

Several Republicans have called on Santos to resign over the last few months. That list includes fellow New York freshmen who flipped several seats in the midterm elections that were key to Republicans winning the House majority: Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Brandon Williams (R-NY), Nick LaLota (R-NY), Nick Langworthy (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Marc Molinaro (R-NY).

Mike Lawler

Lawler has gotten involved in calling for his colleague to resign, but he faces electoral problems of his own. As a member of the wave of New York Republicans who shocked the country in scooping up a handful of House seats in 2022, Lawler now has to defend that seat against a surge of Democratic interest.

Democrats hold a 10-point advantage in Lawler’s 17th District, making it one of the most competitive districts in a key state for both parties. Lawler garnered widespread attention after his win last year when he narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, who at the time was the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That race was one of the biggest upsets of the 2022 cycle.

Lawler’s race is expected to be a toss-up, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

Barry Moore 

The most competitive seat for Republicans to hold on to next year is in Alabama’s 2nd District as Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) seeks to maintain his seat in a race that is expected to lean “Likely Democrat” next year.

Moore’s seat was shifted into the toss-up category earlier this year after the Supreme Court ruled the state must redraw its congressional district boundaries after its previous map likely violated the Voting Rights Act by failing to include a second majority-black district.

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That ruling gives a sense of uncertainty for the district, which a Republican hasn’t held in over 10 years. However, Moore has expressed confidence in his ability to hold the seat, noting the recent map changes “didn’t bother me.”

“I was actually relieved when I saw the map,” Moore told WTVY in July. “I think we’ve done a good job, and I think the people will choose us. Our plan is to continue serving the people and let them choose who they want to hire.”