Four reasons Speaker Mike Johnson might struggle to succeed in 2024

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was thrust into the spotlight in late October following the controversial removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and the several failed speaker hopefuls who followed before the conference agreed on Johnson. Now, he faces a number of significant challenges that representatives who were primed for the role would be expected to struggle with, let alone someone who was elected out of the blue.

Offered some grace from his colleagues in the Republican Party given his newness to the role, Johnson maneuvered a laddered continuing resolution through the House, pushing off some pivotal deadlines until the new year. However, those issues still exist, and Johnson will face an uphill battle following the Christmas break when it comes to finding agreement throughout the House and with the Senate and President Joe Biden. He further risks the wrath of rogue party members who flexed their willingness to burn the conference down during McCarthy’s ouster.

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Here are four problems Johnson will have to deal with in the new year.

Tight timelines in coming months

In November, the House passed Johnson’s two-step continuing resolution, thereby avoiding a government shutdown, by a vote of 336-95, with 93 Republicans voting against it.

The bill sought to extend deadlines for various appropriations bills such as the Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Energy and Water measures to Jan. 19. The other bills would be pushed until Feb. 2.

While the move averted a shutdown and a lengthy holiday omnibus bill, it puts Johnson in a situation where he needs to crack the whip and make things happen quickly in 2024.

When the House returns on Jan. 9, they have just 10 days to come to an agreement on the first grouping of appropriations measures. If this isn’t accomplished, a shutdown is on the table. And another continuing resolution could lead to his removal from the post as Republicans have repeatedly expressed their disdain for stopgap funding measures, preferring to pass the appropriations bills in regular order.

But this isn’t the only January concern for Johnson. The Senate is expected to put forward a package to address both border security and aid for Ukraine, which remains at war with Russia. This would need to be considered by Johnson and the House quickly, and if renegotiation is necessary, this could take up a lot of the speaker’s time. Ukraine funding has become a divisive topic among the GOP and isn’t expected to become less so as the war continues. As for border security funding, it is seen as a necessity by many on the Right, while several Democrats consider it a nonstarter.

Shrinking majority and retirement wave

There are 33 members of the House of Representatives not seeking reelection in 2024, which is on par with the last three election cycles. However, the rate at which members are announcing seems to be increasing following the tumultuous impromptu speaker election after McCarthy’s removal and the near-shutdown before the continuing resolution was passed. Members have also signaled exhaustion with the body as former President Donald Trump appears primed to be the Republican nominee for president once again in 2024 and maintains significant loyalty within the legislative body.

November 2023 set a record for congressional announcements of retirement from the position. With 11 members of Congress announcing their intention not to seek reelection, including 10 House members, the month passed the previous record set in January 2014. The retirements in 2014 followed the government shutdown of October 2013.

Fortunately for Johnson, retirements have been mostly Democratic, with 22 calling it quits. But 11 Republicans leaving office is still significant, particularly with the already small Republican majority in the body.

Some have also decided to leave office before the end of their term, making it even more difficult to pass legislation without near-total support from all conference members. McCarthy, for example, announced he would be leaving Congress at the end of December following the end of his short-lived speakership.

Biden impeachment inquiry

The House this week passed the authorization for an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. With all of Johnson’s other early schedule concerns, impeachment could be one of them. According to Punchbowl News, the speaker may be charged with holding a vote on impeaching the president by February.

Senior House GOP aides told the outlet the investigation into Biden for high crimes and misdemeanors will be wrapped come January.

While the Republican conference was united in voting to authorize the inquiry, a vote to impeach could look very different. And if Johnson and House Republicans want to prove that their focus on investigating Biden for impeachment was worth the time and avoid embarrassment, it could take significant convincing within the conference.

Rampant division within Republican conference

The division within the Republican conference was fully visible during McCarthy’s removal in early October. Not only was it seen in the form of an apparent vendetta led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), but it was apparent as Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-LA) and Rep. Jim Jordan’s (R-OH) subsequent bids for the role were rejected.

In one instance following the drama, McCarthy was accused by Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) of shoving him in the hallway while he was being interviewed by a reporter. This was followed by Burchett chasing McCarthy down and shouting the accusation at him, which he denied.

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The eight Republicans responsible for ousting McCarthy, including Burchett, have similarly faced both public and private scrutiny from their Republican colleagues who are unhappy with McCarthy’s departure. They’re also blamed by many for the chances of vulnerable Republicans in 2024 being put significantly at risk as voters view the House Republicans as incapable of getting work done.

Johnson, a newcomer to this level of leadership, will be expected to get conference members in line and prevent renegade members from further embarrassing Republicans in the 118th Congress.