Republicans are eyeing a New Mexico House and Senate seat as prime pickup opportunities, focusing their efforts on two races in the Land of Enchantment.
Among the 2024 House races, the 2nd Congressional District is poised to be one of the most competitive contests for Democrats this fall. Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) is running unopposed on June 4, setting him up for a rematch with former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, whom he faced in 2022. Herrell is also running unopposed in the GOP primary.
Vasquez is considered one of several major swing-seat House GOP targets as the party seeks to expand its razor-thin majority in the 2024 election. His contest is ranked as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
The congressman defeated Harrell in 2022 by a margin of just over 1,000 votes, so their rematch in 2024 is expected to be another tight race. Herrell’s campaign has raised over $1.6 million, while Vasquez has raised $2.6 million in the same time period, January 2023 to March 2024, per the Federal Election Commission.
Like many Republicans, Herrell is campaigning heavily on what the GOP perceives as a lack of accountability regarding the influx of illegal immigrants at the southern border.
The 2nd District’s general election debates are also expected to center around oil drilling, climate change, and public safety, per local outlet KRWG. On the other side, Vasquez has defended his voting record when it comes to addressing the crisis at the border.
Vasquez was recently one of three House Democrats who sent cease-and-desist letters to the National Republican Congressional Committee over a press release that had a headline quoting the congressman saying, “I support Hamas.” The NRCC dismissed the letters from Vasquez and other Democrats, calling the press release “tongue-in-cheek,” and argued the members should be more focused on their voting record supporting Israel.
The 2nd District race comes after Republicans unsuccessfully challenged a Democratic-drawn congressional map that reshaped the district, dividing a conservative region among New Mexico’s three congressional districts — effectively giving Democrats an edge to keep their control over the state’s two Senate and House seats.
Senate against Heinrich draws strong GOP challenger
Republicans filed in February to have one candidate run against Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-MN) as well. Businesswoman Nella Domenici, the daughter of the last Republican senator in New Mexico, is running to unseat Heinrich, who is seeking his third term.
Domenici has drawn on similar Republican campaign tactics, expressing concerns for inflation and border enforcement, among other policy areas. Her name recognition is a significant asset as well, as her father was longtime GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici, who served from 1973 to 2009. Since then, the state has had Democratic senators.
She is also the half-sister of Adam Laxalt, who served as the former attorney general of Nevada and lost to incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in 2022.
On Tuesday, she released her first ad, focusing on her family’s legacy in New Mexico and her experience as a working mother, as reported by Axios. The ad is part of a half-million ad buy.
She loaned her campaign $500,000 after she entered the race in February, ending with $1 million cash on hand compared to Heinrich’s $4.4 million at the end of March, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Domenici faces an uphill battle to defeat Heinrich, who won reelection in 2018 by 25 points. Still, she is a strong contender for the Senate race, aiding the GOP as it seeks to flip the Senate to a Republican majority this November.
Democrats are defending nine vulnerable Senate seats this cycle, though Heinrich’s seat is ranked as “solid Democrat” by the Cook Political Report, meaning the GOP will not necessarily rely on Domenici to aid in its majority mission.