While the battle for the House is expected to carry on for days as all ballots are counted, Republicans are poised to sweep a majority of the eight Democratic-controlled districts won by President-elect Donald Trump in 2020.
As of Wednesday afternoon, only three of those seats have been called. Several of the eight Trump-won districts were part of this cycle’s 22 “toss-up” races.
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In total, at least three seats are currently projected to remain in the hands of Democrats this cycle, and three have already gone to Republicans. Two, Alaska and Pennsylvania’s 8th District, are projected to go to the GOP, as well.
This comes as Democrats’ path to the majority grows slimmer, as they need a net gain of four seats and were projected to lose at least four — meaning the party needs to flip at least eight seats to win the majority.
Pennsylvania 8th District
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) is the first House Democrat who represented a Trump 2020 district to concede his loss to Republican Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District.
The race has yet to be called by the Associated Press, but Bresnahan holds a slight lead over Cartwright, 51% to 49%, as of 11:11 a.m. EST.
“I know this is not the result we hoped for, but it has been the honor of my life to represent our community in Congress,” Cartwright said. “I am so proud of everything we’ve been able to deliver for northeastern Pennsylvania. Thank you for your support, and congratulations to Rob on his win.”
Trump won this district in 2020 by 2.9 points.
Trump-won districts in North Carolina
Republicans won three seats in North Carolina that Trump won in 2020 but were represented by Democrats in the House.
Redistricting in North Carolina shifted the seats of Reps. Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), and Jeff Jackson (D-NC) into GOP hands, with all three opting not to seek reelection in the state’s 6th, 13th, and 14th Districts, respectively.
In the 6th District, Republican Addison McDowell defeated Constitution Party candidate Kevin Hayes 69.2% to 30.8%. GOP candidate Brad Knott won in the 13th District at 58.7% to Democrat Frank Pierce’s 41.3%. In the 14th District, Republican Tim Moore defeated Democrat Pam Genant.
Trump won these seats by 16.3 points, 17.2 points, and 16.1 points, respectively, in 2020.
Alaska at-large
As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern time, Alaska’s at-large House seat remains too close to call. Trump won this seat by double digits in 2020.
Republican Nick Begich holds a slight lead over incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), 49.7% to 45.3%. However, Alaska is one of two states that use ranked choice voting in federal elections. Under the system, voters rank candidates in order of preference, and votes will be reallocated as candidates are eliminated.
This method helped Peltola win in 2022, as a majority of Begich voters did not rank former Gov. Sarah Palin (D-AK) at all. Peltola was able to consolidate votes, becoming the first Democrat to hold the state’s House seat in 50 years.
The third-party candidates, independent John Wayne Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner, received 3.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Their votes will likely be reallocated to Peltola and Begich.
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Maine 2nd District
As of 12:03 p.m. Eastern time, incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) holds a slight lead over Republican Austin Theriault. The race remains too close to call, but Golden is currently projected to hold on to it.
Theriault found himself leading Golden for much of election night, but Golden managed to push through and gain a lead of almost 6,000 votes over the GOP candidate. Trump won Maine’s 2nd District in 2020 by just over 6 points, and the Associated Press called the district for him this year by an 8-point margin.
Golden is one of the most conservative House Democrats. Republicans eyed Maine’s 2nd District as a prime pickup opportunity for the 2024 election.
Ohio 9th District
In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-OH) district is rated “lean Democrat” but still one of the most competitive this cycle. She faces Republican Derek Merrin, and the race remains too close to call as of 12:46 a.m. Eastern time. Trump won this district in 2020 by 2.9 points.
Kaptur is leading Merrin, 48.1% to 47.8%, with 99% of the vote counted. She has declared victory in the race. Though the Associated Press has not called her victory, she is currently projected to win.
The Ohio Democrat is the longest-serving lawmaker in Ohio’s delegation, holding the 9th District seat since 1983. Republicans targeted her as a pickup opportunity, hoping to ride Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance’s coattails at the ballot box.
Washington 3rd District
Incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s (D-WA) race remains too close to call as of 1:31 a.m. EST. Trump won this district in 2020 by 4.2 points.
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Perez is slightly leading Republican challenger Joe Kent, 52% to 48%, with the Associated Press currently projecting her to win.
Like Golden, the congresswoman often breaks with the Democratic Party on matters such as immigration due to her district’s purple leaning. She was also considered a prime GOP target for the 2024 cycle.