Historic terror attack on Israel threatens to shake up Republican 2024 field

As Republicans grapple with a populist and isolationist shift within their party, the fatal terrorist attack in Israel Saturday threatens to change attitudes toward foreign policy, particularly regarding America’s commitment to the Middle Eastern country. A surge in support for Israel and United States involvement abroad could present a significant moment for 2024 Republican candidates to establish their stances among a less predictable base.

Hamas, a terrorist organization operating out of the contentious Gaza Strip, conducted a fatal attack on southern border cities and towns in Israel Saturday, killing citizens and capturing others and bringing them to Gaza. One analysis from CNN suggests more than 500 have been killed. Following the attack, Israel declared war, doing so for the first time since 1973.

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For Republican strategists, it is not clear immediately whether the terrorist attack will play a significant role in the Republican primary. Israel has long been supported by significant factions within both political parties, with significant importance among the large evangelical bloc in the Republican Party.

Timothy Head, the executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, predicted that this will be a turning point in the 2024 primary, particularly among evangelicals, whom the group largely represents the values of.

“Yesterday’s attack will make Israel and the Middle East a top-of-mind subject for many more voters,” he said. “This is a highly complex subject, and it will favor candidates who have more experience on the national and international stages.”

But as populism appears to take hold among Democrats and Republicans, support for Israel has begun to diminish across the board. It isn’t definite that this event will significantly affect the 2024 field.

If the attack does shift scales in the 2024 primary battle, though, GOP strategist Douglas Heye said, “My eyes would be on [former U.N. Ambassador Nikki] Haley.”

Haley boasts a strong commitment to Israel, one she has maintained throughout her political career. During her time as U.N. ambassador in former President Donald Trump‘s administration, she defended Israel fiercely amid scrutiny within the body. She was one of the first members of Trump’s administration to back the move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, which Trump ultimately did in 2017, and remains a significant symbol of his administration’s commitment to the country.

In a prolific moment for her career, Haley defiantly raised her hand while her fellow U.N. Security Council members cast votes in favor of a draft resolution calling on members not to place embassies and other diplomatic missions in Israel’s capital of Jerusalem. Using the U.S.’s veto power, Haley blocked the resolution. Aware that a similar vote would soon take place among the larger body of U.N. members, then-Ambassador Haley wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, “At the UN we’re always asked to do more & give more. So, when we make a decision, at the will of the American ppl, abt where to locate OUR embassy, we don’t expect those we’ve helped to target us. On Thurs there’ll be a vote criticizing our choice. The US will be taking names.”

But Haley is far from the only 2024 Republican candidate with a record of strong support for Israel.

“Unlike the other candidates on stage, President Trump has a track record of defending Israel, not just with tweets or political statements. But with real executive action: moving the embassy to Jerusalem, negotiating the historic peace treaty known as the Abraham Accords, and destroying terrorists like [Iranian military officer Qasem] Soleimani,” said Republican strategist Alex Bruesewitz.

And while Trump has enjoyed the support of Republicans who prefer hands-off foreign policy and perhaps less aid to ally countries, Israel has remained a unique case during this transitional period for the GOP, per fellow strategist Chip Felkel. “It’s probably off limits with the former GOP and its current iteration,” he said, referring to presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, whose recent statements on future Israel aid have been the subject of severe criticism.

Yonatan Sindel/AP

“If we’re successful, the true mark of success for the U.S., and for Israel, will be to get to a 2028 where Israel is so strongly standing on its own two feet, integrated into the economic and security infrastructure of the rest of the Middle East, that it will not require and be dependent on that same level of historical aid or commitment from the U.S.,” Ramaswamy said during an August interview.

He was immediately hit by fellow 2024 candidates, specifically Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, who have made their unwavering support for America’s role globally, particularly as it relates to Israel, central to their respective campaigns. But Ramaswamy has maintained that his statements have been misconstrued. Talking to reporters in New Hampshire Saturday, he said, “We will not end aid to Israel until Israel tells us they are ready for it.”

In terms of Trump supporters and their thoughts on Israel, Felkel said, “Think Christian Nationalistic Populist for Trump, ironic,” pointing to what appears to be a contradiction among the former president’s base. It should be noted, however, that the average voter is often understood to cast their votes in a contradictory fashion and does not have a consistent ideology.

“That said, too early to say,” Felkel added of the terrorist attack’s effect on the 2024 Republican primary race.

“Israel is fully expected and justified in response and retaliation for this heinous, brutal attack. As more is learned about families murdered, children kidnapped, [and] soldiers killed, the majority here will be even more supportive. Not less,” he continued.

Of the attack, Republican strategist David Kochel said, “It’s a good reminder of how volatile things can become in the Middle East, and yes, I do think it will clarify for Republican voters the need to stand with our friends.”

Discussing Ramaswamy’s difficult position given his controversial comments on aid, he added, “Has Vivek said anything other than the boilerplate ‘stand with Israel’ rhetoric? It will be hard for him to reconcile that with his earlier comments about reducing aid.”

Following news of Hamas’s attack, Ramaswamy said in a post to X, “I am appalled by the barbaric and medieval Hamas attacks. Shooting civilians and kidnapping children are war crimes. Israel’s right to exist & defend itself should never be doubted and Iran-backed Hamas & Hezbollah cannot be allowed to prevail. I stand with Israel and the U.S. should too.”

In an additional, more expansive post, the presidential candidate blamed the attacks in part on a recent prisoner swap deal which saw President Joe Biden’s administration unfreeze Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar, allowing them to be used sans potential U.S. sanctions. He joined a chorus of Republican politicians in pointing to the recent move, including other presidential candidates such as Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and Trump. Surrogates for Trump also noted that the former president foreshadowed an attack of this nature as a result of Biden’s prisoner swap deal.

GOP strategist John Feehery suggested the Hamas attack will have far-reaching implications on much more than just the Republican primary. “It will have an even bigger impact among Democrats. Progressives have become much more anti-Israel. This hurts their cause,” he explained.

As for the 2024 primary, he suggested that rather than just impacting foreign policy, “I think it will add even more significance to the border security arguments.”

“It’s a reminder that there are some evil people out there who will do evil things, which strengthens the case of defense hawks,” Feehery said.

In just over a day since the attack, his prediction has come true, as 2024 Republican candidates have already begun connecting the attack on Israel to the southern border and immigration issues in the U.S.

“What happened to Israel could happen here. … Iran has said the easiest way to get into America is through the southern border,” Haley said Sunday. Ramaswamy also made the connection, writing on X, “Key lesson for America to learn from the attack on Israel: we cannot be complacent about defending *our own* borders. If it can happen there, it can happen here.”

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“Our own foreign policy establishment has focused on distant foreign priorities while leaving us badly vulnerable on border defense, cyber and super-EMP defense, nuclear missile defense, and space-based defenses. We can’t lose sight of that & should use the attacks on Israel as a wake-up call here at home,” he added.

The attack on one of the U.S.’s allies occurred as Republicans marked 100 days until the Iowa caucuses, the first in the nation. The 2024 candidates are ramping up efforts in the Hawkeye State, where the developments in Israel could now play a role, as they prepare for the Jan. 15 caucuses.