Former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan‘s entry into the Senate race is already proving to be a nail-biter for Democrats, as surveys show independents and even some left-leaning voters are looking to throw their vote behind Hogan and possibly cost Democrats a key Senate seat in 2024.
Hogan launched his bid for Senate on Feb. 9, silencing rumors that he was weighing a third-party presidential bid after he stepped down from No Labels leadership — and polling shows that his Senate bid might be just what Republicans need in their fight to flip the upper chamber. Candidates are vying to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD).
The first Emerson College/the Hill/DC News Now poll for the 2024 Maryland Senate race was released on Thursday, finding that Hogan already poses a threat to Democrats. In a matchup with leading Democratic candidate Rep. David Trone (D-MD), Hogan holds a “broad appeal” among independents, with 48% of the vote, and takes in nearly one-quarter of the Democratic vote.
“In a matchup between Hogan and Alsobrooks, independents support Hogan 43% to 18%, and 31% of Democrats support Hogan,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The appeal of a third-party candidate to establishment Democrats is a sign that Hogan’s promise not to cater to party politics may hold sway with those unhappy with the direction of Congress and national politics in general.
Hogan is tied with Trone at 42% of the support, and 16% are undecided. Against candidate Angela Alsobrooks, Hogan holds a 7-point lead, 44% to 37%, with 19% of voters undecided.
In a statement, Trone said the poll proves he is the only Democrat who can beat Hogan this November.
“This poll confirms what we hear everywhere that I go: Marylanders are sick and tired of career politicians like Larry Hogan and Mitch McConnell and the special interests that they serve in Washington at the expense of hard-working Americans,” Trone said. “We’re excited to see another poll that shows the hard work of our supporters is growing our lead in the Democratic primary, but we must remain focused on building the Democratic base and a ground game that can beat Larry Hogan and Mitch McConnell and protect our Senate majority in November.”
The Republican Party does face an uphill battle in the heavily blue state of Maryland. However, the former Republican governor’s entry in the race hands the GOP a prominent candidate to rally behind in a state the GOP has long treated as a lost cause. The Old Line State has not had a Republican senator in 37 years.
Seven Republicans have filed to enter the GOP primary, but none is as well known as Hogan. The former governor leads the Republican primary field within just six days of being a candidate, and no other candidate besides Hogan reaches double digits.
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Democratic leaders are divided in the Maryland Democratic primary. House Democrats such as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and his deputies are throwing their support behind Trone, while people such as Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) are endorsing Alsobrooks, who is the two-term executive of Prince George’s County.
Trone has condemned Hogan’s entry into the Senate race as a “desperate attempt to return Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump to power.”