House Republicans strike note of optimism ahead of closed-door speaker vote

House Republicans emerged from a closed-door speaker forum optimistic the chamber could elect its next speaker as soon as Tuesday night after three weeks at a standstill.

During the Monday night candidate forum, the third such meeting so far this month, Republicans pressed the would-be speakers on their vision for the conference just weeks before a government shutdown. Although their pitches differed slightly, each said they would not support advancing an omnibus bill, according to lawmakers who attended the meeting.

HOW HOUSE REPUBLICANS WILL PICK THEIR NEXT SPEAKER NOMINEE IN CROWDED FIELD

Nine candidates walked into the forum vying for the nomination, a number that dropped to eight after Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) ended his bid at the outset. The Pennsylvania Republican, who declared his candidacy on Sunday, acknowledged he “came in late” to the race, pointing to other commitments that would take away from his speakership priorities.

“I believe the House will elect a new Speaker, and I know we will be in good hands with one of our colleagues running,” he said in a statement, citing a pledge to help former President Donald Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania. “I’ve spoken to President Trump, and he supports my decision.”

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the majority whip and ex-chairman of House Republicans’ campaign arm, is the front-runner in the race, while two others — Reps. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Kevin Hern (R-OK) — have attracted the support of their home-state colleagues. Reps. Austin Scott (R-GA), Mike Johnson (R-LA), Pete Sessions (R-TX), Jack Bergman (R-MI), and Gary Palmer (R-AL) are also pursuing bids.

The free-for-all, which comes after failed candidacies by Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), means it may take several rounds for the conference to select a new speaker designate, but several lawmakers predicted that nominee could be elected by the full House by Tuesday night, an aggressive timetable that would leave little time to corral votes.

“I think we’ve committed to that,” Johnson said. “And I hope we can get it done.”

House Republicans will meet at 9 a.m. on Tuesday for a closed-door conference vote, during which lawmakers will vote via secret ballot for their preferred candidates. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the lawmaker with the lowest number is eliminated, and the process is repeated until a candidate secures more than 50% support.

“Somebody’s gonna be able to get 217 in there,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD). “I think at least half of them could get there, the other half might struggle a little bit, but we’re gonna have to figure out how to get our act together. I mean, big boys and big girls have got to quit making excuses and we just gotta go get it done.”

After that, the timeline is unclear as some candidates want to assure the eventual nominee has 217 votes before heading to the floor — something Jordan failed to do before being dropped as the party’s candidate last week.

Some members are skeptical the House will have a speaker by the end of this week, with one GOP member putting the odds at “0%.”

“Hopefully, I’m wrong,” the member said. “But hope isn’t a plan, and it appears the House conference doesn’t have either.”

Donalds, for one, said if he won the nomination, he would not go to the floor until he had 217 votes.

“I’m always very clear with my colleagues — you got to have 217 in the room,” he said. “That’s what we need to do at this point. And then we’re gonna move forward.”

Republicans are desperate to avoid making the speaker’s race a public spectacle after Jordan floundered for three rounds on the House floor. It took former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) 15 rounds in January to win the gavel.

Members exited the meeting hopeful, however, that they had worked through the worst of their divisions and would be able to coalesce around the next nominee.

“I think there was an understanding that some mistakes have been made and that we can’t repeat those mistakes,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) said, alluding to grievances that Jordan allies stood in the way of Scalise becoming speaker.

“I think we’re moving forward from that,” added Diaz-Balart, who opposed Jordan on the floor. “I think it’s important that whoever wins, the ones that don’t win are gracious and supportive.”

Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), another Jordan holdout, told reporters he would support any of the eight candidates running for speaker, describing his prior opposition as done in protest of McCarthy’s ouster by just eight Republican colleagues.

“If people play by the rules, they support the majority of the majority, and they don’t undercut someone that’s won, I’m going to be there,” he said, “because that’s the way it’s supposed to be done.”

Working in Republicans’ favor is that all eight candidates have committed to backing the eventual nominee, prompted by a “unity pledge” that Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE) began circulating last week.

Yet there’s no guarantee that all 221 Republicans will do the same. Members such as Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who is supporting Donalds in the speaker’s race, were noncommittal on Monday.

“We’ll see. I didn’t sign the pledge thing that has gone around,” said Roy. “I just — I think we need to focus on making sure someone’s gonna lead this party in the right direction.”

And sticking points such as the state and local tax deduction, which the New York delegation is looking to reform, remain obstacles, depending on who is nominated.

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) expressed reservations about candidates who had been “hostile” toward such reforms. “We would need to ameliorate that sort of concern,” he said.

But on the whole, Republicans exited the meeting optimistic that the conference might overcome the bitterness that defined the last two nominations.

“It was a great tone in there, I thought,” said Bacon.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

If the conference can’t coalesce around a single candidate, Republicans could still move to expand the powers of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) or elect him for the remainder of the Congress.

A GOP push to elevate him until January fell apart last week in the face of widespread opposition. If faced with the same kind of gridlock, centrist members could nonetheless revisit a privileged resolution that would require Democratic votes to pass.