How an Arizona election law could cause havoc in 2024

A new law in Arizona mandating ballot recounts could significantly affect the 2024 election, as it would likely cause state officials to miss crucial deadlines for vote certification that were at the center of debunked voter fraud claims in the last two elections.

Arizona was one of several states where former President Donald Trump and his allies focused their challenge to overturn the 2020 election. Many Arizona Republicans continue to fixate on debunked claims that there was widespread voter fraud in 2020 and 2022, after Republican Kari Lake lost to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ).

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Shortly after Trump’s loss in 2020, Republican and Democratic lawmakers proposed a measure to lower the threshold that triggers automatic recounts in certain races, including statewide and legislative ones.

Election workers will have to wait for an order from the court and re-tally millions of ballots through tabulation machines and audit samples of those ballots. After the primary, a recount will have to occur simultaneously with running the general election.

Under federal and state laws, everything from ensuring the accuracy of candidate names on ballots to mailing the ballots to overseas or military voters must occur 45 days before the election, or Sept. 21, 2024. One calendar estimating overlaps between primary recounts and general election deadlines shows that counties would begin transmitting results to the secretary of state on Dec. 16, 2024, the day before the Electoral College convenes, with the results of the state’s recounts available on Dec. 28, 2024.

Because the law did not take effect until the 2022 general midterm election, the implications of the measure have never been tested in a full election cycle.

The Elections Officials of Arizona, which represents the state’s 15 counties, argued in a letter that the new law will “put in jeopardy” immovable deadlines on the election calendar, including those regarding the Electoral College process and ones that confirm the winners of August primaries to determine general election ballots for military and overseas voters.

The letter was sent to the County Supervisors Association of Arizona and the Arizona Association of Counties on Sept. 11, according to the Washington Post.

Prior to the new law, recounts in Arizona were few and far between. However, because of the competitive nature of the state’s parties and the existence of the measure, there were three recounts in the 2022 midterm elections. One of the recounts was the contest for attorney general, which confirmed that Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes defeated Republican Abe Hamadeh by just 280 votes. The original count was a lead of 511.

Voting administrators have urged Hobbs and members of the GOP-controlled legislature to come up with solutions. One proposal seeks to move Arizona’s primary election earlier in the summer. Other ideas to buy more time during the general election include speeding up the proofreading of ballots and allowing local officials to transmit results to the state more quickly, per the Washington Post.

Hobbs, who was secretary of state during the 2020 election, said in a statement that she is aware of the expected effects of the new recount law and is “glad to partner with elections officials” for a legislative fix.

“In 2024, all eyes will be on Arizona,” Hobbs said in a statement via the Washington Post. “We must ensure that Arizonans’ votes are counted, including in the presidential election, and that the American people have full confidence in our election processes and our democracy.”

Arizona is one of several battleground states in 2024, and this new law could significantly slow down the state’s ability to certify elections in a timely matter. Election officials estimate it would take about three weeks to recount ballots during the August primary, given the precedent set by the 2022 recounts and the projected voter turnout for 2024.

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In the general election, which polls are showing as another likely showdown between Biden and Trump, recounting the ballots will be more important than ever and will likely take even longer than three weeks, the officials said.

“We’re unfortunately moving into a perfect storm of timing,” Jennifer Marson, executive director of the Arizona Association of Counties, told the Washington Post. “If we miss that deadline, we are in uncharted territory. To my knowledge, that deadline has never been missed by any state, ever.”