How Trump’s dominance might boost chances of Republicans flipping the Senate

With former President Donald Trump dominating the first two primary contests, major conservative donors who threw their support behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are sensing defeat and preparing to put their efforts into the 2024 Senate races.

Some of the donors are concerned that a Trump candidacy for the Republican Party could have the same disastrous effect that his endorsements had in the 2022 midterm elections, particularly for Senate candidate Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. Like many Trump-endorsed candidates, they defeated centrist Republicans in the primaries only to lose to Democrats in the general election.

Though the 2024 electoral map appears to favor the GOP strongly, a Trump nomination could hurt vulnerable Republicans as Democrats seek to tie their campaigns to Trump and sway centrist and establishment Republican and independent voters.

“If Trump ultimately is the nominee, the threat of a repeat of the last three elections and a Democrat sweep increases dramatically, making the Senate and the House that much more important,” Bill Riggs, a spokesman for Americans for Prosperity Action, said in an interview with CNN.

Americans for Prosperity Action is one of the many groups that have donated to Haley, who is the last remaining major challenger to the former president and whose endorsement of the former United Nations ambassador shocked conservative circles. AFP leaders will continue to support Haley, the group plans to tell its network donors at a South Carolina gathering this weekend, CNN reported — the next state in the Republican primary lineup and first primary for Democrats.

However, the group’s biggest investment for this election cycle will focus on flipping six Democratic-held Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“It’s all hands on deck for the Senate,” Eric Levine, a New York-based donor who has supported Haley and plans fundraisers for GOP Senate candidates, told CNN a day after Trump’s New Hampshire win.

Levine pointed to a recent Democratic win in New York after the state’s top court ruled the legislative maps must be redrawn before the 2024 election, placing the task in the hands of a Democratic-controlled state legislature that could severely affect the GOP’s ability to keep its already razor-thin majority in the House.

On the other hand, Republicans hold a significant advantage in the Senate elections this November, only having to defend 11 seats compared to the Democrats defending 23. However, exit polling from the recent primaries could spell disaster for Senate candidates who are tied to Trump but rely on the independent voting bloc for success.

Exit polling from New Hampshire showed Haley won, by a wide margin, those who identified as centrist or liberal. She won 60% of self-described independent voters. Given Trump’s underperformance with independents, the quality of the Senate candidate in 2024 will greatly affect whether the GOP flips the upper chamber or not.

Trump himself has endorsed Senate candidates in West Virginia and Ohio, two states where Democrats are defending Senate seats. He endorsed Bernie Moreno in Ohio, who seeks to oust Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) in West Virginia, who seeks to replace outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). The former president has avoided taking sides in the Montana Senate race, where Republicans are pumping millions of dollars to take down Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is doing the same to protect Tester, one of the most vulnerable candidates for the party this cycle.

Pennsylvania Republican strategist Vince Galko said Republicans on the Senate ballot for 2024 will need to “walk a fine line” to see success and tread carefully when discussing Trump.

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“He’ll need to make this race about the Biden-Casey record and not about the Trump rhetoric, which is easier said than done,” Galko told CNN.

The Washington Examiner reached out to Americans for Prosperity Action for comment.

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