How Trump’s influence could affect House Republicans seeking the speaker’s gavel

While not currently in the White House, former President Donald Trump could still have significant influence over his party and its choice for House speaker.

Nine Republicans are running for speaker of the House after Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) dropped out as the initial nominee and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the GOP’s second nominee, lost three votes on the House floor. Each candidate represents a wide range of ideologies within the Republican Party. Some are likely to be favored by Trump, such as Reps. Kevin Hern (R-OK) and Gary Palmer (R-AL), while others like Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) are likely to draw harsh criticism from hard-line conservatives.

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Emmer is the highest-ranking Republican running for speaker. At No. 3, his job is to “whip,” or count votes, to pass the speaker’s agenda. Emmer was floated as a possible speaker candidate before the nomination went to Scalise. He has significant experience in leadership, previously serving as two-time chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as a history of building relationships with conservative and centrist members of his own party.

However, he faces a problem from the Republican Party’s right flank. Members from the House Freedom Caucus have accused Emmer of not being supportive enough of Trump. And the former president is reportedly telling associates that he does not back Emmer’s campaign for the speaker’s gavel, according to Politico. Loyal supporters of the president have engaged in circulating opposition research on the majority whip, and the pro-Trump War Room podcast blasted Emmer on Friday, Politico reported.

A source close to Trumpworld told the Washington Examiner that the former president would “unleash hell” on Emmer if he sought the speakership. “He is anti-Trump, and Trump orbit will not let him hold the speaker gavel.”

Hard-line conservatives have some solid evidence for the growing distance between Emmer and Trump — the Minnesota Republican voted in favor of certifying the 2020 election and has not endorsed Trump for president for 2024. Given Trump’s heavy influence on the House Freedom Caucus, and the uphill battle to receive 217 votes without getting hard-line conservatives on board, Emmer’s journey to become speaker could be just as difficult as Scalise’s was.

However, allies of Emmer are working overtime to combat any anti-Trump rhetoric, instead blaming the opposition to Emmer on his fellow House colleagues — such as Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), who narrowly lost the majority whip race last year despite several hard-line Republicans coming out against Emmer.

“Banks … activated Trumpworld against Emmer, and a lot of that was unfounded,” an Emmer ally told Politico Playbook. “But there’s still lingering false narratives from that race. It didn’t work for Banks. It’s not going to work now to paint Emmer as if he’s a Never Trumper.”

In recent months, Emmer has denied allegations that he mobilized the NRCC against Trump supporters in the 2022 midterm elections, instead pointing to comments in a Fox News interview where he praised the former president as a “fantastic ally” for the House GOP. Emmer’s allies have also pointed out that, while Emmer has not endorsed Trump, top Republicans like Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Scalise have not endorsed Trump yet, either. The whip’s allies told Politico that Emmer will endorse whoever the Republican nominee is, a stance typically taken by high-ranked GOP leaders.

On the other side, two candidates for speaker may earn favor in Trump’s eyes, and therefore the support of the House Freedom Caucus and its allies. Both Hern and Palmer joined 145 Republicans in voting against certifying the 2020 election. Hern, in particular, has remained a loyal supporter of the former president, which could grant him an endorsement in the speakership race.

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However, support from Trump can be a double-edged sword. While gaining favor with the right flank of the Republican Party, support from the former president could alienate centrist Republicans upset that the party would not engage Democrats in expanding Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R-NC) interim speaker powers.

The nine GOP speaker candidates will meet behind closed doors at the Longworth House Office Building for a candidates forum at 6:30 p.m. EDT, per C-SPAN. The House is expected to reconvene on Tuesday at 9 a.m. EDT for the first round of speaker votes.

The Washington Examiner has reached out to Emmer for comment.

Reese Gorman contributed to this report.