How voting registration has changed in key states ahead of 2024

The 2024 election is poised to be pivotal, as Republicans and Democrats will fight for control of the House of Representatives, Senate, and the White House, and both parties vie to get their voters to show up in force for their candidates.

One of the indicators of how a political party is doing in several of the key states is voting registration. While not every state discloses the number of voters registered to each political party, some of the pivotal swing states regularly provide the information. Here is a look at who has gained ground since the 2020 election in terms of voter registration.

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Arizona

In the Grand Canyon State, Republicans held an advantage of 130,454 more registered voters than Democrats on election day 2020. The Republican Party had 1,508,778 registered voters, compared to the Democratic Party’s 1,378,324 registered voters.

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly defeated Republican Donald Trump in Arizona after Trump had carried the state in 2016. Since that election, Democrats won both major statewide races in 2022, adding to Republican frustrations in the state in recent years.

As of July 2023, the Republican Party has 1,445,127 registered voters compared to the Democratic Party’s 1,260,659. The Republican registration advantage increased to 184,468 since the last presidential election, but the category of “other” has overtaken the GOP in registered voters since the last general election.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, Democrats held an advantage of 97,215 more registered voters than Republicans as of September 2020. The Democratic Party had 5,315,954 registered voters, compared to the GOP’s 5,218,739 registered voters.

In 2020, Trump narrowly defeated Biden in Florida after Trump had carried the state in 2016. Since that election, Republicans won both major statewide races in 2022 by significant margins. The GOP’s strong showing in the Sunshine State in recent years has translated in voter registration numbers, with the Republican Party overtaking Democrats after being behind them by more than 500,000 voters in 2012.

As of Sept. 30, 2023, the Republican Party has 5,183,078 registered voters compared to the Democratic Party’s 4,556,560, a GOP advantage of 626,518 voters.

Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Nevada

In the Silver State, Democrats held an advantage of 109,031 more registered voters than Republicans in November, according to state records. The Democratic Party had 762,460 registered voters, compared to only 653,429 registered voters for the Republican Party/

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in the state. Since that election, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) successfully defended her seat in 2022, while Republican Joe Lombardo defeated then-Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) in the gubernatorial election that year.

As of Oct. 1, 2023, the Democratic Party has 706,922 registered voters compared to the Republican Party’s 637,193 in the state. The Democratic registration advantage shrank to 69,729 since the last presidential election.

Pennsylvania

In the Keystone State, Democrats held an advantage of 685,818 more registered voters than Republicans on Election Day 2020. The Democratic Party had 4,228,888 registered voters, compared to the GOP’s 3,543,070 registered voters.

In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Pennsylvania after Trump had carried the state in 2016. Since that election, Democrats won both major statewide races in 2022, and the GOP has stayed behind the Democratic Party in terms of registered voters but appears to be closing the gap.

As of Oct. 23, 2023, the Democratic Party has 3,897,179 registered voters compared to the Republican Party’s 3,451,289. The Democratic registration advantage shrank to 445,890 since the last presidential election.

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In all four states, both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will be fighting for each state’s electoral votes, but also each state will feature a critical Senate race for control of the chamber.

Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the party on defense in more vulnerable seats than the GOP. Of the four states featured, three of them have Democratic incumbents who will likely face a difficult GOP challenge.