A bipartisan commission in New York approved a newly proposed congressional map on Thursday, one that looks similar to the current one that helped Republicans pick up seats in 2022 and win the House majority. While the advancement was a surprise, the next step will be the real signal of how the state’s Democratic-dominated legislature plans to counteract Republican gains.

New York’s Democrats will decide either to move the commission’s proposed map forward or reject the boundaries and create their own. Both options come with risks, and the eventual decision will have broader implications for New York and the way the House will skew next year. 

Under the New York Constitution and a court mandate, state lawmakers can reject the proposal and assume the mapmaking process themselves, likely giving Democrats more of an advantage. But in rejecting the bipartisan commissions’ proposal, Democrats are vulnerable to a lawsuit, sending the issue back to the courts. 

The Democratic-led legislature could be growing tired of the long legal battle and adopt the maps, risking reelection for Republicans in several contested seats across Long Island and Westchester County.

One Democrat has already rejected the proposal. State Sen. James Skoufis said in a statement, “After almost two years of hand-wringing and legal battling for a fair congressional map, the only thing ‘bipartisan’ about the Independent Redistricting Commission’s proposal is that both parties are seeking to protect their incumbents.”

Other Democratic lawmakers said they would review the maps carefully before making any decisions. Any changes could affect the already thin majority Republicans hold over the House going into the 2024 elections.

“We plan to discuss and decide our subsequent actions soon, taking into account the election cycle calendar,” Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the New York Senate majority leader, said in a statement. “This process is critically important and we are committed to concluding it in a manner that upholds fairness and democracy.”

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In a 9-1 vote, the Independent Redistricting Commission moved New York’s two-year-long redistricting fight forward, setting Democrats up for the final say. Under the proposed lines on Thursday, Democrats would be poised to pick up Rep. Brandon Williams’s (R-NY) Syracuse-area seat. Two incumbents would be safer under the new lines; Rep. Marc Molinaro’s (R-NY) Hudson Valley seat would likely become more favored by the GOP, and Rep. Pat Ryan’s seat (D-NY) would likely become more Democratic. Several toss-ups on Long Island would remain virtually unchanged.

The commission was tasked with providing new maps to the state legislature after Democrats won a lawsuit in December, in which the New York Court of Appeals asked for updated lines following the redistricting process during the 2022 cycle, which helped Republicans pick up four seats.