DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowans traditionally reward candidates who vigorously campaign in all corners of the Hawkeye State, but former President Donald Trump is poised to break the mold if he wins Monday’s caucuses by showing up the least.

Until now, the magic of Iowa has been a relatively unknown candidate could launch a national presidential bid by charming individual voters through dozens of stops at local Pizza Ranch restaurants and community spots. Legwork would pay off in Iowa, and the 2024 candidates are testing whether that theory still holds.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has gone all in on Iowa, aggressively campaigning across all corners of the state, completing his “Full Grassley” last month, a reference to Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) tradition of visiting with voters in all 99 counties in the state.

“Our view is to do it the way that people who have done well in Iowa have done – rather than do it the way the media thinks,” DeSantis said, addressing the Associated Contractors of America Conference in Des Moines on Wednesday. “I think that’s the way you get to actually meet people, answer questions, we did all 99 counties.” 

Entrepreneur and political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy completed a “Double Grassley,” visiting all 99 Iowa counties at least twice, but has only registered single digits in the polls for his grueling schedule.

“There is no one who has worked harder in this state, in fact, I think for the first time ever, Vivek Ramaswamy did the full Grassley all 99 counties, not once but twice, and most counties he could probably hit a third time,” said Jake Chapman, Ramaswamy’s Iowa State Co-Chair at an event last weekend in Clarence, a rural town in Cedar County. 

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has prioritized campaign stops in Iowa’s voter-dense suburbs but also has had her eye on other early states like New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina.

Despite having held only a couple dozen events in the state, Trump holds a commanding lead in most Iowa polls. He has stepped up his number of Iowa events over the last couple of months, and while it’s nowhere near the number of his competitors, it doesn’t appear to be impacting his support among Iowa voters.

“I will say that Trump gets a pass. I’ll probably be one of the few to tell you that he gets a pass,” said Kelley Koch, the Dallas County Republican Chair. “Why? Because he has a four-year track record.”

John Englehardt, 60, attended a Haley event in Waukee this week but said he already had decided he was caucusing for Trump, despite the fact the former president hasn’t been as active in the state as some of the other candidates.

“If Trump chooses not to come here … that’s up to [him],” Englehardt said. “It’s not like ‘Oh, you didn’t come to Iowa. I’m not voting for you.’” 

Eric Branstad, an Iowa Republican operative, said the typical Iowa rules just don’t apply to Trump, a former president with virtually 100% name recognition. 

“The full Grassley absolutely matters but not really for Trump. He’s got the momentum, he’s got the organization, he has better data than anyone ever had,” Branstad explained.

Past winners of the caucuses set the tone for what Iowans expected of their candidates, with intense on-the-ground campaigns that included rural town halls and face time with individual voters. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum achieved a major upset win after completing all 99 counties in 2012; Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) also used a similar playbook in 2016 after he defeated Trump in this state. 

However, the record of success has, at times, been mixed. Former Rep. Michele Bachmann completed a 99-county tour in 2012 but finished in sixth place. Santorum won by a razor-thin margin over Mitt Romney, who hadn’t invested as much time in the state as some other candidates.

Even Sen. Grassley, the tradition’s namesake, believes this cycle is different also. The senator has not endorsed a candidate in the race and has committed to staying neutral. 

“Wherever Trump has been, and you get hundreds of people, and sometimes thousands of people, and you’re an ex-president, former president, obviously that’s probably the way to campaign,” Grassley said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “So, if you aren’t well-known like the other candidates — who are better known now — some of them have decided to do the full Grassley, I think it’s very very important that they do it.”

The senior senator from Iowa has completed a 99-county tour every year since entering the senate in 1981. He emphasizes the practice is not about campaigning but understanding the concerns of his constituents.

“You can’t really represent people if you don’t know what’s on their mind,” Grassley said.

Patricia Barglof, 74, a Ramaswamy supporter, said she’s much more inclined to support a candidate who visits her town, saying that rural Iowans feel like they need to be included in the electoral process. 

“It most definitely is a factor,” she said after attending a Ramaswamy town hall last weekend. “When it’s a small venue like this, I think it’s a little better. I’ve gone to Trump rallies, and you’re just a little person in a big crowd,” she explained.

“Even though it’s fun to watch him and fun to be part of the excitement, that’s neat, too, but you don’t get close to him. You don’t get a picture with him. You don’t get to ask him a question. Like I asked him today. You know, you don’t have that chance.”

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J. Ann Selzer, a veteran pollster in the state, said her polling so far has shown that Trump has broken every campaign mold from the past. 

“I think it’s more symbolic than anything else. It shows a commitment to Iowa to go everywhere, to leave nobody out, so you kind of have to respect it,” Selzer said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “They get to say the name Grassley, so they are aligning with a popular senator. But, how many people are they actually meeting?” 

Naomi Lim contributed to this report.