Is Nikki Haley the big winner of Tim Scott suspending his presidential campaign?

Despite his less-than-stellar polling numbers, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dropping out could have an outsize impact on the 2024 presidential campaign.

Scott appeared to be moving at full speed and even got the most speaking time during last week’s GOP debate, but he suspended his campaign on Sunday night, with one challenger in particular positioned to benefit.

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“If you ever want to love your country more, run for president. Traveling this country, meeting people has been one of the most fantastic experiences of my entire life. I love America more today than I did on May 22,” Scott said. “But when I go back to Iowa, it will not be as a presidential candidate. I am suspending my campaign.”

“I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,'” he continued.

Scott will not be endorsing anyone, at least for now, but his suspension could still be a big boost for fellow Palmetto State native Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador.

Haley’s support has been surging since the debates began, nearly tripling from 3.2% on Aug. 22 to 9% today, per the RealClearPolitics average. While she remains a long shot to beat former President Donald Trump, whose polling is near 60%, Haley is resting her hopes on a strong performance in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

The latter of that trio is Haley’s home state, where she served as governor from 2011 until early 2017. Scott, as another South Carolina politician, stood to split local support with his presidential campaign. That obstacle is no longer present.

The two have a long history, as Haley appointed Scott to fill a vacant Senate seat on Dec. 17, 2012. And despite Scott’s lack of an endorsement, both were campaigning as younger, more electable, forward-looking alternatives to Trump.

Despite their difference, which included a back-and-forth over abortion policy during the first GOP debate and sniping at each other during the second, the two may be viewed similarly by the electorate and donors. Two big-time Scott backers, Eric LeVine and metal magnate Andy Sabin, switched their support from Scott to Haley immediately following his withdrawal.

The Haley campaign and Scott’s campaign staff did not respond to questions from the Washington Examiner.

Another candidate who surely took notice of Scott’s demise is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who has seen his lead over Haley shrink nationally and in Iowa, where the Florida governor has invested heavily. Prognosticators increasingly see a DeSantis-Haley showdown for second place behind Trump in the primary.

The DeSantis campaign seems to have noticed, as spokesman Andrew Romeo blasted Haley on Monday morning.

“It’s clear there is no way Nikki Haley can beat Donald Trump, and every dollar spent on her candidacy is an in-kind to the Trump campaign,” Romeo said. “Ron DeSantis has the best combination of endorsements, ground game, and message in the early states, which is why the former president continues to attack only him.”

South Carolina political experts agree Haley benefits from Scott’s exit. The question is how significant that boost will be.

“One could see much of Scott’s 6 or so percentage points of support in South Carolina going to Haley, but this would still leave Haley currently well behind Trump,” University of South Carolina political science professor David Darmofal said.

Darmofal predicted Scott would endorse Haley if he endorses anyone, yet he said both remain in the “same establishment lane,” and thus, Scott’s support will not do much on its own to help her make up the gap.

“Former President Trump remains very likely to be the Republican nominee,” he said.

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Presidential historian Craig Shirley said he hopes Scott runs again, calling him “the most interesting candidate in the field.” For now, he feels that Haley will get a boost for the simple reason that there is one less candidate dividing support, but he feels the primary is all but over.

“Donald Trump’s base of support is unshakable,” Shirley said. “There will be a little more sunlight on Haley now, but that will be true of all of the candidates. The question is, who will take advantage of it? So far, it’s Donald Trump.”