Six months into one of the deadliest wars in Israel’s existence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political life is hanging by a paradox.

“The loss of trust in him is really prevalent here,” a European official based in Israel observed. “The public … is somehow united over the goals of the war, but the same public lost trust in his capabilities.”

Netanyahu has loomed over Israeli politics since the mid-1990s by developing an image as the Jewish state’s premier security provider. That reputation took a severe blow when Hamas terrorists rampaged across southern Israel on Oct. 7, igniting a conflict that has strained his ability to manage a governing coalition of center and hard-right politicians — demonstrated not least by Israeli opposition leader-turned-war cabinet minister Benny Gantz’s recent diplomatic tour of Washington and London.

“There are things happening right now that seem to indicate the fragility of the coalition,” Foundation for Defense of Democracy Senior Vice President Jonathan Schanzer told the Washington Examiner. “The further along this war goes, the more tenuous it all feels because there is going to be, at some point, a need for elections to take place. … Netanyahu is trying to finish the hard fighting before it’s all done. I think he wants to be able to show the Israeli public what he’s achieved as a means to offset whatever negative things may come to light about him.”

President Joe Biden and top Democrats, for their part, have made clear their desire to expedite that process.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Thursday in a floor speech that stunned officials in Jerusalem. “He has put himself in coalition with far-right extremists … and as a result, he has been too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza, which is pushing support for Israel worldwide to historic lows. Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah.”

Schumer’s denunciation of Netanyahu came just days after the prime minister’s team accused U.S. intelligence officials of seeking his “overthrow,” based on an assessment, in a wide-ranging annual intelligence report, that “Netanyahu’s viability as leader … may be in jeopardy.” Schumer’s call for Israel to hold elections — “the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel,” he said — drew criticism from Netanyahu’s top rival.

“Israel is a strong democracy, and only its citizens will determine its leadership and future,” Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz, a centrist opposition leader who joined a unity government with Netanyahu after Oct. 7, wrote on social media. “Any external intervention in the matter is incorrect and unacceptable.”

The attacks on Netanyahu are widely perceived as a political maneuver by a Biden team anxious to mollify the anger of progressive-left Democratic voters in an election year that could turn on the choices of Arab American voters in the battleground state of Michigan. 

Yet Netanyahu made himself a convenient target in the months between his return to power and the Oct. 7 attack: his government tried to adopt legislation that would curtail the powers of the Israeli judiciary, sparking massive protests in Israel, including a boycott threat by thousands of military reservists whose opposition helped to stymy the bill.

The lingering acrimony from that dispute broke into the view over the last week when an Israel Defense Forces division commander told reporters that Israeli leaders need to “be worthy” of the military sacrifices, a barb sharpened by a subsequent broadcast of a conversation in which he told soldiers of a confrontation with Netanyahu in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack.

“I told him: Prime minister, before the war we entered now, we were in another war. We were in a war where we were killing one another,” IDF Brig. Gen. Dan Goldfus told Israeli troops on a recording broadcast by Israeli media on Thursday, one day after his public swipe. “We broke one another’s hearts. … We will fight where you tell us. But we want to know that we are returning to a different place after the war. No more internal wars … in which we rip out each other’s throats.”

Goldfus was “severely reprimanded” by IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi on Friday for his public breach of protocol. Yet the recordings of his private statement to Netanyahu, including his pointed observation that the reservists turned out in force when the need arose, point to the potential for another rift to open between Netanyahu and the rank and file, particularly as tension builds over the question of whether ultra-Orthodox Jews will continue to enjoy their traditional exemption from military service. 

“This is such a polarizing topic. … I think it could be one of the major issues in the next elections and really, really extremely divisive,” the European official said. “It’s really toxic. And almost everyone you meet here randomly speaks about this topic.”

The strain this issue could place on Netanyahu’s coalition was on display last month when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that he would not support any new legislation on the draft status of the ultra-Orthodox unless it enjoyed the support of Ganzt’s centrist bloc. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, a hard-right politician, accused Gallant of trying to blow up the coalition and “take us to elections.”

As Schumer prepared to fire his broadside at Netanyahu on Thursday, Gantz’s party announced that he would not participate in a scheduled meeting to discuss the draft exemption controversy on the grounds that “no agreement or willingness to hold a professional discussion has been expressed” by Netanyahu. And while Ben Gvir seems to suspect that a removal of the exemption could fracture Netanyahu’s alliance with the ultra-Orthodox, its continuation could spur the reservists who flexed their political muscle last year to do so again.

“Everybody’s kind of wondering, what’s the mechanism that eventually gets you to an election?” Jewish Institute for National Security of America senior fellow John Hannah, a former national security adviser to then-Vice President Dick Cheney, told the Washington Examiner. “If you suddenly have a bunch of reservists who have just … had to go through really intense combat, if they start taking political action to demand an end to the government and a new government, that could be quite divisive.”

Yet Gantz also has his political difficulties. His center-right ally, Gideon Sa’ar, a former member of the Likud who left the party after losing a leadership battle with Netanyahu in 2019, renounced his affiliation with Gantz.

“Our voice, the voice of the dignified right, is more essential today than ever,” Sa’ar said Tuesday. “Israel today needs an alternative to the dignified right. If we don’t lead this — I don’t see anyone else who can do it.”

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U.S. intelligence officials have suggested that “a different, more moderate government” could come to power following new elections, but that assessment might be wrong, even if Netanyahu falls from power.

“There is a hope that the crisis will turn out in an optimistic way … and the moderate voices in Israel will prevail, but this is not guaranteed,” the European official said. “The demography of Israel is also the factor where the country is changing. It’s more conservative, more religious. … It is difficult to have a quantitative assessment, but … the prime minister’s party, it’s ideologically very aligned with this far right.”