PHILADELPHIA — Vice President Kamala Harris is making an unmistakable bet on Philadelphia in the face of a yearslong decline in voter turnout that could cost her Pennsylvania and perhaps the election.

She chose the city to launch a battleground tour with her new running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), on Tuesday and has visited the state six other times this year, including a Philadelphia town hall she attended in July.

The Democrats’ ability to win the city is not in doubt. With a 7-to-1 voter registration advantage, Harris can count on a decisive victory here and in Pittsburgh, another blue stronghold, even as former President Donald Trump runs up the score in more rural parts of the state.

But Democrats are left guarding against two trends undermining their chances in November. In 2020, Philadelphia brought out the highest number of voters in two decades, fueled in part by the rise in mail balloting. Yet turnout has fallen substantially below expectations in elections since then, including during President Joe Biden’s 2024 primary.

At the same time, 2020’s numbers obscured a small but material improvement for Trump in Philadelphia. He picked up 17.9% support against Biden, compared to 15.4% four years earlier.

“Low turnout in Philadelphia has gone from irksome to concerning to troublesome to top of mind for Democratic politicos. It keeps them up at night,” said Christopher Nicholas, a veteran GOP political consultant and the author of the PA Political Digest newsletter.

“Add to that inroads Donald Trump has made with minority men, and you can see why it’s such a problem for them,” Nicholas added.

Biden nonetheless won the state in 2020 on the strength of his appeal to suburban voters, albeit by a single percentage point. Then, as now, Democrats believe they can win the outskirts of Philadelphia and other vote-rich areas on a message that emphasizes abortion access and frames Trump as a threat to democracy.

Republicans will also have to erase the improvements Democrats made in rural counties during the midterm elections.

Nonetheless, Democrats have voiced skittishness about the turnout in Philadelphia, given the crucial role it will play in the November election.

Harris does not need to win Pennsylvania to become president, assuming she can pick up competitive states such as Georgia and Nevada. But it is the richest of all the swing states in terms of electoral votes and the top target of both Harris and Trump in terms of campaign advertising.

Harris’s path to the White House runs clearly through Pennsylvania. According to 270toWin’s “consensus” Electoral College map, Harris has three winning combinations to the necessary 270 electoral votes and the presidency, whereas Trump has five pathways. The one “must-win” state for Harris in her trio of scenarios is the Keystone State.

Combined, the Harris and Trump campaigns are spending more than twice as much on Pennsylvania than any other battleground, according to Axios. 

Her choice of Walz suggests a level of comfort that she can win Pennsylvania without Josh Shapiro, the state’s popular Democratic governor, as her running mate. He was one of three names on her short list.

But victory in Philadelphia will require reversing a decline in voting that goes beyond presidential dynamics. Only 43% of city residents voted in the midterm elections, compared to 49% in 2018, while turnout was down in April’s presidential primary.

Last year’s mayoral election represented a bright spot, reversing the trend of declining turnout for off-year elections, gains that were concentrated in whiter enclaves of the city.

But Harris will also have to overcome the enthusiasm gap seen with Biden, who dropped out of the presidential race two weeks ago following a disastrous debate performance. She does not have the “Scranton Joe” appeal that is credited with helping Democrats with Pennsylvania’s white working class, but the president faced seemingly intractable skepticism from minority and progressive voters, two pillars of the traditional Democratic coalition.

In a visit to Philadelphia in May, Harris launched a black voter initiative with Biden to address the flagging support, though the Latino vote is also of concern. Trump’s inroads in the city were due, in part, to a shift in predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philadelphia.

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Harris will need to stem those losses, both in Pennsylvania and nationally, if she hopes to become president. But Democrats believe they stand a better chance with a new ticket. She has tightened the polls with Trump since entering the race two weeks ago, including in the slate of battlegrounds she will visit over the next week.

Following her Philadelphia rally, Harris will travel to Wisconsin and Michigan, the two other “blue wall” states that Trump won in 2016. Her tour also includes trips to North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.