The Lone Star State has long been a red bulwark for the national GOP due to its formidable size, 40 electoral votes, and conservative influence. Everyone from Tom DeLay to Rick Perry to either President Bush has called Texas home. Yet just a year before another presidential election, the state’s Republicans find themselves fighting one another.

On Saturday, Sept. 16, in Austin, the Texas Senate voted to acquit Attorney General Ken Paxton of all 16 articles of impeachment, to the cheers of the Texas Republican Party and the chagrin of the Texas House managers who levied these charges against him, thereby splitting the Texas legislature and Republicans, perhaps more than ever in modern memory.

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Paxton’s impeachment didn’t create fault lines under the state party, but it did exacerbate them.

On May 27, 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted 121-23 to send articles of impeachment against Paxton to the Texas Senate. Charges included evidence and testimony that Paxton had used his office for political and personal gain and, in many cases, to aid a friend and high-profile donor and real estate investor, a man named Nate Paul.

Paxton is under a separate federal investigation regarding the Paul case and faces trial on felony securities fraud charges. The impeachment trial originally came about because four former senior employees sued Paxton after he allegedly fired them when they reported him to the FBI. Several reached a settlement, and then Paxton asked the state legislature to fund his $3.4 million settlement.

House managers alleged Paxton had been involved in bribery, felonies, abuse of official capacity, and more. To add fuel to the fire, the House accused Paxton not only of having an affair but of using his office to do favors for Paul so that Paul would hire his mistress, Laura Olson.

The trial was dramatic, with sobering testimony peppered by emotions and spectacle, though neither Paul, Paxton, nor Olson wound up testifying. When it finished, it was clear that the House and Senate had been divided in more ways than just by party: It is now Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who presided over the trial, and far-right, Trump-supporting, grassroots Republicans versus Dade Phelan, the House speaker, and his more traditional Republicans, who supported a guilty verdict.

The aftermath was quick and brutal. In a speech, Patrick scolded the House, accusing them of rushing the process. He’s now called for a full financial audit of taxpayer dollars spent during the entire process and suggested the Texas Constitution be amended in a way that allows more time for the House to process impeachment proceedings, among other things.

Several members of the House who voted against the articles of impeachment called on Phelan to resign. Phelan and Patrick have been exchanging jabs. Other lawmakers are angry, too.

“The Texas House owes not just Texas but the entire United States an apology for what they did,” Rep. Steve Toth, a Republican, said in an interview with Center Square. “This was so wrong. We were told there would be evidence upon evidence upon evidence upon witnesses upon witnesses, and there was nothing. It is a complete embarrassment for Texas, the Texas House, the speaker. The speaker needs to resign.”

Dr. Brian W. Smith, a political science professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin, told the Washington Examiner, “Paxton’s vote in the House was not unanimous and was buttressed by overwhelming support from Democrats. The belief against Phelan is that he tried to remove Paxton, he failed, and [he] should be held accountable. The very conservative GOP members, who did not support impeachment, want Phelan out and to replace him with one of their own. They could not do it to begin the session, but this provides them with the political cover to try again. Absent Phelan, this would enable the lieutenant governor to have more influence in any upcoming special session.”

Just two Republican senators, Kelly Hancock and Robert Nichols, voted to convict. Neither has expressed any regret. In a reflection of the larger fight within the national party, Hancock’s and Nichols’s supporters laud them as principled, while their critics see them as turncoats.

“It was my constitutional obligation to seek the truth based on the facts made available through witness testimony and all documents admitted into evidence, then vote accordingly,” Hancock said in a statement. “My vote on each article reflects that responsibility.” Nichols echoed similar sentiments.

Byron LaMasters, a Texas native who is a partner at InFocus Campaigns, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C., focused on Democratic clients, told the Washington Examiner that from his perspective, the result was foregone. “Once Donald Trump and Dan Patrick decided to make this about politics instead of Ken Paxton’s corruption, it was clear that there wouldn’t be enough Republicans in the Senate with the political courage to do the right thing,” he said.

Brendan Steinhauser, a partner at the Austin-based Steinhauser Strategies, focused on the effect of Trump’s involvement.

“Trump had an impact in all of this going back to his support for Paxton in his last election,” Steinhauser told the Washington Examiner. “That alliance and loyalty both ways has had a positive impact for Ken. His statements for Ken have added to that impact and helped Ken. As important or more important is Trump’s ability over the last six years to drive distrust of institutions in this country. The fact that he was able to drive distrust of the FBI, DOJ, and the media has almost had a bigger impact on this.”

What now?

Already, political insiders and observers are hinting at major repercussions and shifts in the Texas legislature, which could affect future elections and Texas’s standing as an immovable GOP stronghold due to the impeachment process and the trial results.

“The momentum is with the conservative grassroots,” Steinhauser said. “Trump still has a tight grip on the Republican Party. The real question is how many House members will lose their seats over the next two cycles, to be replaced by people who opposed the impeachment.”

“RINOs are now on notice,” Defend Texas Liberty PAC leader Jonathan Stickland tweeted at Phelan on Sept. 16. “You will be held accountable for this entire sham. We will never stop. Retire now.”

It’s likely there will be challengers to those in the House who voted for Paxton’s impeachment who are up for reelection next year.

At worst, the Republican Party could see some Democrats trying to wedge their way into elected office, helped by the GOP’s constant infighting. Smith explained: “We do not know the full fallout of the GOP split yet. If it is just personality-based over Paxton, it will likely not last,” but “the GOP is in trouble if this is a deeper rift within the party over real policy issues beyond the RINO and MAGA name-calling. … A Republican Party with a unified government that cannot pass policies and is stricken by infighting may provide the Democrats with such an in.”

There are some policy differences between the two factions, but the desire for different kinds of leadership seems to take precedence and spark the deepest rifts. Although, it did take months this last legislative session for the House and Senate to figure out how to pass property tax relief for Texans, even with a massive surplus available.

LaMasters thinks electing Democrats could be a good strategy to show folks like Paxton out, which would definitely shift Texas’s political makeup. “Clearly, the Texas GOP is split over whether they’ll tolerate Ken Paxton’s corruption, and this episode has made it clear to Texas voters that they can’t count on Republicans to police themselves,” he said. “The only way to hold corrupt officials like Ken Paxton accountable is to elect more Democrats to the state legislature in 2024 and make sure that he’s defeated for reelection in 2026.”

As far as Texas’s national reputation, it’s possible the impeachment results hurt it only a little or, as Smith suggested, even help it. “The National GOP still sees Paxton as an effective mouthpiece. The GOP can challenge the Biden administration through the House and the actions of some governors, but Paxton has proven that [he] is unafraid to challenge the Biden administration through the courts, no matter how frivolous the issue may seem.”

Paxton has sued the Biden administration multiple times on everything from spending to abortion to immigration.

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It’s clear that the Paxton impeachment trial and acquittal rocked the Texas GOP. But perhaps the larger problem for the party is the extent to which it reflects the divisions in the party nationally.

“The GOP remains fractured along the same lines that it has been the last decade,” Steinhauser observed. “You have a speaker that’s more moderate. You have the Senate that’s more conservative, more grassroots. They will continue to do battle. And the outside entities will continue to do battle. This is just one battle in a broader war. And it will continue.”

Nicole Russell (@russell_nm) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. She is a mother of four and an opinion columnist for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in Texas.