McCarthy lost the gavel. Can anyone hold on to it?

Rep. Kevin McCarthy may be the first speaker to be deposed by the House, but he’s unlikely the last to stare down a conservative revolt.

The California Republican, navigating a four-seat majority and a right flank out to get him, failed to end things on his terms. Despite having the overwhelming support of his conference, just eight hard-liners were able to oust him on Tuesday after nine months on the job.

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Those renegades cited his “original sin” of compromising with President Joe Biden to lift the debt ceiling. The “final straw”? His decision to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday with the help of Democrats.

In some sense, McCarthy had formed an unhappy marriage bound to unravel. He gave conservatives immense power over him across 15 rounds of voting in January, promising to pursue priorities that Democrats would never agree to. Once it came time for him to cut a deal, hard-liners revolted over the result.

Yet the turbulence is not unique to his speakership. In 2015, John Boehner, reviled by conservatives for his willingness to work cross the aisle, famously resigned rather than face McCarthy’s fate. His successor, Paul Ryan, endured conservative discontent despite being far more popular.

Both were dealing with the Freedom Caucus, a group of conservative hard-liners averse to bipartisanship and just about any establishment leader.

That caucus was fiercely divided on Tuesday when a handful of its members and those aligned with them voted for a motion to vacate. But they will look upon McCarthy’s replacement — the speaker announced on Tuesday he would not mount a comeback bid — with the same suspicion and penchant for conflict.

“We saw a similar thing happen to Boehner, Ryan, and now McCarthy,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the former majority whip of the Senate, told reporters on Tuesday. “I’m sure the next speaker is going to be subjected to the same terrorist attacks.”

It’s not that the Freedom Caucus was actually split on McCarthy. Its chairman, Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), had choice words for him even as he signaled he would vote against his ouster on Monday.

“Kevin has earned the situation that we have,” he told reporters.

But many were reserving judgment. They wanted to allow McCarthy more time to pursue further cuts in the appropriations process after he negotiated what amounted to a spending freeze with Biden earlier this year. His replacement will inherit the same demands with just a month to fund the government.

Already, conservatives such as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) are making impossible asks for their vote, such as defunding the special counsel prosecuting former President Donald Trump. Other land mines, including a request for Ukraine aid opposed by many conservatives, still lay ahead.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), the ringleader who initiated the no-confidence vote, says he would happily support any number of Republicans entertaining a run for the speakership, including McCarthy lieutenants Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Tom Emmer (R-MN), the No. 2 and No. 3 Republicans in the House.

Yet even those front-runners are under no illusion about the task before them. Hard-liners such as Gaetz have demonstrated their willingness to grind House business to a halt if it sends a message to leadership.

Scalise, who is undergoing treatment for blood cancer, ostensibly has a better shot at governing given he is viewed as more conservative than McCarthy. But Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), one of the rebels in his conference, told reporters that anyone in McCarthy’s orbit is tainted by association.

“We have a very tight majority, we always knew that getting things done was going to be difficult. It still will be. So, no matter who is going to be the next speaker, the challenges still remain,” Scalise told Punchbowl News.

McCarthy, speaking to reporters shortly after his ouster, expressed no regrets for choosing “governance over grievance,” but he did have one bit of advice for his replacement: “Change the rules.”

The motion to vacate, an arcane procedure to depose a sitting speaker, had not been used since 1910, yet it became a constant threat over McCarthy’s head. To win the gavel, he agreed to lower the threshold so a single member could call a vote, all but guaranteeing an eventual showdown.

McCarthy’s replacement will face the same threat, unless members agree to change how the conference operates as part of the speaker’s race.

“I don’t think that rule is good for the institution, but apparently, I’m the only one,” he said.

The Republican Main Street Caucus met on Tuesday night, according to Politico, to discuss some of those possible changes.

One escape hatch is a unity speaker that Democrats help elect in exchange for certain concessions and privileges. That would leave the hard-right powerless to depose the leader, yet the prospect is anathema to most Republicans and would probably mean an end to their impeachment inquiry into the president.

McCarthy himself refused to negotiate such a deal to save his speakership.

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The party could rally around Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), a darling of the Right who, over the years, went from McCarthy antagonist to ardent supporter, but centrists would be reluctant to elevate him to that perch due to the role he played in forcing out Boehner.

He, along with Emmer, Scalise, and Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), the head of the Republican Study Committee, have been making phone calls to gauge support within the conference. A candidate forum is planned for next Tuesday, with an internal election on Wednesday.