McConnell’s Ukraine support tested by Zelensky visit and GOP border fight

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will return to the U.S. Capitol this week as the Senate hustles to finish and pass a bipartisan package funding the war.

A bipartisan working group of senators has made next to no progress in weeks on a border security deal, which would be added to a defense spending package that includes assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Negotiators on both sides have acknowledged that the border measure is critical for the package to be able to pass both chambers in a divided government.

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Zelensky’s Tuesday visit will put a spotlight on the stalled negotiations, which have no end in sight despite this being the last working week of the year for the upper chamber. The trip will also highlight the stark GOP divisions on the Ukraine matter.

While more than half of the 49 GOP senators support some type of continued aid to Ukraine, there is a vocal part of the conference that strongly opposes such measures.

The same cannot be said for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has been Ukraine’s staunchest ally since Russia launched its war last February and invited Zelensky to the Capitol with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Schumer and McConnell have been in lockstep on supporting the effort to combine Israel and Ukraine aid. The two have also backed the inclusion of border security, though they differ on specifics, as a means to push the bill through both chambers. Taiwan assistance was additionally included to help broaden support for the bill.

McConnell has been such an advocate of the cause that his legacy has become somewhat intertwined with U.S. support for the war effort, with his grip over the GOP being measured by his ability to push Ukraine aid over the finish line.

The anti-Ukraine faction is far bigger on the House side, where both McConnell and Zelensky have little influence over the growing isolationist wing of the GOP. The House was also frozen for nearly a month this fall after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted from the speakership, delaying any progress on the defense package.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), McCarthy’s eventual replacement, has told Senate Republicans that it would be difficult to pass the upper chamber’s bipartisan package even with a substantial border deal, which negotiators have thus far failed to reach.

McConnell has been meeting privately with allies to discuss other strategies for passing Ukraine aid, a source familiar tells the Washington Examiner. Still, the idea of packaging Ukraine assistance with a border deal remains the preferred choice among Senate leadership on both sides of the aisle.

Should the effort to push a whole package through both chambers fail, political watchers may begin to question the longtime GOP leader’s ability to keep his members in line.

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The top Senate Republican has already faced multiple efforts by anti-Ukraine members of his conference to push a stand-alone Israel aid bill through the chamber, which he helped block. He also, however, voted down Schumer’s efforts to invoke cloture on the defense package because negotiators had failed to reach a deal on the border measure.

The legislation is expected to eventually pass the Senate with bipartisan support if negotiators can reach an agreement. Even if Republicans were to secure concessions from Democrats in the Senate talks, the package would face considerable opposition from House GOP lawmakers who oppose Ukraine aid.