Mike Pence foreshadows fate of shrinking GOP field

Former Vice President Mike Pence was polling ahead of four Republican presidential candidates when he dropped out.

Pence, who suspended his campaign on Saturday, will have his place in the history books thanks to his service as vice president and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But his early exit raises questions for the other GOP campaigns.

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“We always knew this would be an uphill battle, but I have no regrets,” Pence said when he shocked the crowd at the Republican Jewish Coalition by calling it quits. “To the American people, I say: This is not my time, but it is still your time. I urge you to hold fast to what matters most — faith, family, and the Constitution.”

“It’s become clear to me,” he added. “This is not my time.”

Yet at the time he made those remarks, Pence was polling at 3.5%, per the RealClearPolitics polling average. That put him ahead of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2.4%), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (1.6%), former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (0.6%), and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) (0.6%).

None of those candidates have dropped out yet, though Christie predicted that more will soon. Christie says he’ll stay in the race at least through the New Hampshire primary, telling CNN, “I’m going to be ready to take on Donald Trump when people actually do start to vote.”

The third Republican presidential primary debate will be held on Nov. 8 in Miami and requires a polling average of 4% in a combination of state and national polls. That factor may have played a role in Pence’s decision, even if it hasn’t forced the hand of the candidates polling below him.

It’s unclear what effect the exit of Pence, 64, will have on the race and what it means for the Republican Party going forward. He may be most famous for defying Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election, a fact that did not translate to success on the campaign trail.

Pence is also a Republican from another era, argues Rutgers University history, journalism, and media studies professor David Greenberg, with a different vision of what the party should stand for.

“Pence has been a consistent voice for his brand of Christian social conservatism, but it is no longer dominant within the GOP,” Greenberg said. “MAGA populism has taken over.”

Former Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Donna Brazile made a similar point, saying the Republican Party is becoming Trump’s “MAGA Party.”

In September, Pence made a version of that argument himself, framing his candidacy as a choice between conservatism and populism. In that vision, it would appear that populism is winning.

Trump has asked for Pence’s endorsement, which is unlikely due to the clear split between the two since Jan. 6. Pence’s campaign did not respond to questions from the Washington Examiner.

Not everyone agrees Pence’s 2024 failure means his brand of conservatism is on the way out. Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley points to Pence’s milquetoast personality and his inability to articulate a governing vision as the reasons he never caught on.

“Bashing Donald Trump is not a platform,” Shirley said. “Jan. 6 doesn’t impact the daily lives of Americans, and it’s a wash among the tiny minority that really cares about it.”

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While it’s too late for Pence, Shirley extends that criticism to the rest of the non-Trump field. He says they need to articulate to voters a reason why they are running and what they will do for the electorate.

“Elections are not about you. They’re about the voters and what you’re going to do for the voters,” Shirley said. “[Pence] never told the American voter what he’s going to do for them. Trump does that every day. He does it in his sleep. He says, ‘I’m going to bash the establishment for you,’ and the people say, ‘Right on.'”