The Senate ad wars in Big Sky Country are raging, with both Democrats and Republicans funneling millions to blanket the airwaves in Montana, a state critical to achieving a majority in the upper chamber.
Outside groups have already made early ad reservations in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is facing what could be his most difficult reelection campaign yet, in a state former President Donald Trump easily won twice. So far, Montana has seen $89.4 million in ad spending from groups on both sides of the aisle, the most of any state, according to a report from AdImpact. Nevada takes second place in ad spending but only saw half as much with $35 million.
Republicans have also been focused on incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) seat, but ad spending in Ohio was not as significant yet. So far, it is at $17.6 million from both sides, with the bulk of the expenditures coming from Republicans.
WinSenate, an outside Democratic group, reserved $26 million for the general election in Montana. Earlier this week, Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group tasked with defending their majority, reserved $27 million in Montana to aid in Tester’s reelection, according to reporting from Politico.
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The state is also seeing an explosion of ad spending in the lead-up to the primary election in the state. The National Republican Senatorial Committee landed a major victory in recruiting former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy into the Montana Senate race last June to challenge Tester. However, Sheehy is likely to face Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) in a primary, who is eyeing his own Montana Senate launch right before the March filing deadline, a move national Republicans fear could jeopardize a winnable seat.
A pro-Sheehy super PAC has spent $3.4 million in ad buys. Sheehy’s campaign has also spent $3.3 million on ads. So far, Democrats are spending more, with Tester’s campaign dishing out $6.6 million and the Democratic group Last Best Place PAC spending $5.7 million. Many of their ads have been focused on attacking Sheehy’s record.
After Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not seek reelection in West Virginia in November, the path to holding on to control of the Senate is going to be an uphill battle for Democrats, with West Virginia now a virtual lock to flip Republican.
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That one seat means Republicans could win Senate control just by capturing the White House and utilizing their eventual vice president to cast tiebreaking votes. If they lose the presidency, Republicans will need to win one more Senate seat, with Montana, Arizona, Nevada, and Ohio seen as prime pick-up opportunities.
The spending has only just begun. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), is expected to dump millions more dollars onto the airwaves.