With the 2024 election cycle kicking into gear this year, both parties are facing their toughest obstacles yet, with national Republicans seeking to protect their most vulnerable members in competitive contests from defeat in November.

House Republicans, in particular, are facing many difficulties stemming from infighting and aggressive Democratic targeting that has resulted in a shift in several races’ projections. Some GOP lawmakers, once finding themselves in a solid, likely Republican position, are facing the reality that their contest may be much closer than they thought.

The five seat shifts could spell disaster for the House GOP, which cannot afford to lose a single seat this November. Republicans hold 219 seats to the Democrats’ 213 seats, and some of the most vulnerable Republicans are worried that the record of this Congress, as well as the overshadowing from former President Donald Trump, could lead to a loss of the House and a loss of their jobs.

Here are five contests in which Republicans saw their futures shift and how their contests are predicted to play out.

Garret Graves

Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA) is one of several GOP members facing congressional redistricting, moving his seat from a Trump +34 to a Biden +20, effectively making it a likely or solid Democratic seat, according to CookPoliticalReport and Baseline.

In November, Baseline did not consider Graves’s race to be in play this election cycle. By January, his race slipped to likely Democratic. CookPoliticalReport does not list Graves’s race as competitive, moving it from “likely Republican” in June 2023 to “solid Democratic” in January 2024.

Once considered the right-hand man of House Republican leaders, Graves now finds himself in a position in which his job could be taken away altogether. Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) greenlit the new congressional maps after court orders dictated the state must create a second majority-black district — transforming Graves’s once-solid Republican area into one more favorable to Democrats.

Graves fell victim to Louisiana politics, but not necessarily without reason. In 2023, Graves went against Landry for the gubernatorial primary and endorsed former Louisiana Association of Business and Industry leader Stephen Waguespack instead. Landry then signed the new maps that were favored by his Democratic predecessor, appearing to many that he had a political score to settle with Graves.

The Louisiana Republican also has a tense relationship with his colleagues following the departure of his ally, former California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted from the speakership in October last year. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Graves have not always seen eye to eye, particularly displayed during the speaker’s race to replace McCarthy. The majority leader had accused Graves of spreading misinformation about the state of his health as he was being treated for multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer. Graves has also been accused of putting more stock into his relationships with Washington lawmakers over his fellow home-state members, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

So Graves is likely not expecting any support from Scalise this reelection season. Still, he plans to run for reelection and predicts the new maps will face legal challenges. If they hold up in court, Graves will likely face state Sen. Cleo Fields, a prominent black Louisiana Democrat who is the clear favorite to win the 6th Congressional District in November.

Scott Perry

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) is one of several hard-line conservatives facing the reality that they may be too right-wing for their districts that are trending more white-collar suburban and less Republican. Most recently, the former House Freedom Caucus chairman’s race has gone from “likely Republican” R+5 in June 2023 to “lean Republican” R+5 six months later.

Perry’s 10th Congressional District is unique in that it encompasses Harrisburg, which voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, and the surrounding suburb areas that voted for Trump, making his district a red win at 50.7% of the vote in the last presidential election. Though Trump won the seat, he declared victory with only a 4-point lead over Biden, down from 10 points in 2016. Perry also narrowly won in 2022, 54% to 46% against Democrat Shamaine Daniels.

Following a turbulent year in politics for the GOP, CookPoliticalReport marked Perry as the most vulnerable House Republican incumbent in December. The congressman’s connection to the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol is not likely to help his cause, as his phone records are part of special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s interference with the 2020 election.

CookPoliticalReport analyst David Wasserman told Pennlive that several factors led to Perry’s move into “lean Republican,” including Perry’s inability to extricate himself from the election subversion charges against Trump. He is also bogged down by $106,000 in legal debts and a small amount of $540,000 in his campaign account, per Federal Election Commission finance records.

Perry could face his toughest Democratic challenger yet in Janelle Stelson, a 30-year veteran news anchor the party is rallying around after nearly seven Democratic hopefuls signaled they wanted in for the 2024 primary. She will face two strong primary opponents: Daniels, who is looking to challenge Perry again, and retired Marine Lt. Col. Mike O’Brien. However, Democrats’ biggest hurdle in the 2024 election will be Biden’s disapproval ratings and Trump’s ability to draw general election-only voters to the polls, giving Perry a possible edge.

David Valadao

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) is one of two California Republicans whose seat shifted from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” between June last year and January. His contest is likely to be a repeat of last year, when he narrowly won against his pro-Trump primary opponent Chris Mathys and his Democratic opponent Rudy Salas — and both men are running again in 2024.

Democrats are targeting 33 seats to flip this election cycle, particularly in 18 districts won by Biden that are represented by Republicans like Valadao. In 2020, the president won by 13 points in the 22nd Congressional District, and Valadao won by 4 points. The California Republican is one of a handful of GOP members who voted to impeach Trump, possibly contributing to his lasting tenure in the state’s 22nd Congressional District.

Republicans are wary of repeating the 2022 midterm elections, in which most Trump-endorsed candidates lost to Democrats. Valadao’s race was the rare exception, in which a centrist Republican defeated a hard-line conservative in the primary.

Mathys is once again choosing to center his campaign on Valadao’s vote to impeach Trump, the likely Republican nominee. He told the Guardian in an interview that people in the district recall the impeachment matter “like it was yesterday” and said he believes it will “resonate stronger” now that Trump is on the ballot this year.

Democrats are likely to use Valadao’s three-time vote for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) as speaker against him, as it goes against his self-described mantra of being an “independent-minded farmer” from the Golden State. However, he was a strong ally of McCarthy’s, and the former speaker’s downfall and recent departure from Congress could affect Valadao’s fundraising abilities. The 22nd Congressional District race is rated D+5.

Derrick Van Orden

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), despite holding a right-leaning Wisconsin seat, still saw his race move from “likely Republican” in June to “lean Republican” in January. CookPoliticalReport attributed the move to several controversies surrounding Van Orden, who announced his campaign for reelection on Saturday.

Van Orden faces an uphill battle toward reelection, particularly as his relationships with influential GOP lawmakers have grown tense over recent months. He received heavy criticism from Senate leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), for yelling and cursing at Senate pages during a tour of the Capitol. He also yelled during a White House briefing and has been antagonistic toward fellow House Republicans, particularly members such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who voted to oust McCarthy, one of the House GOP’s biggest campaign fundraisers.

With McCarthy now out of Congress, Van Orden will likely need to rely on other GOP donors to finance his campaign. Democrats are already taking aim at the congressman, capitalizing on his “temper tantrum” problems and calling him “directly responsible” for the “failure” of Congress to pass a farm bill. Van Orden became the first Wisconsin Republican congressman to endorse Trump in January and campaigned for him ahead of the Iowa caucuses, so Democrats are likely to take any opportunity to tie him to the former president and the Jan. 6 riots.

Van Orden’s seat is one of the 2024 targets of the House Democrats’ campaign arm as the party works to narrow down the Democratic field of candidates. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) is calling on Democrats to rally behind state Rep. Katrina Shankland, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Shankland has campaigned on her record of “winning in tough races,” the outlet reported. Nonprofit group leader Rebecca Cooke, who lost the 2022 Democratic primary for the same seat, picked up an endorsement from the centrist congressional Blue Dog Coalition in December.

Ken Calvert

Another California Republican facing a tough reelection is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA). Like Valadao, his race also moved from a “lean Republican” contest in June to a “toss-up” race in January. However, opposite Valadao, Republicans have a short lead over Democrats in retaining Calvert’s seat.

Calvert is falling victim to a leftward trend in the 41st Congressional District due to the latest round of redistricting in the state that brought new voters into Riverside County, turning it into a highly competitive district. Now, the district pushes east into liberal and LGBT-friendly Palm Springs, moving its Republican index from R+6 to R+3.

Similar to Valadao, Calvert is facing the same Democratic challenger he narrowly defeated in 2022, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins. Rollins, who is gay, could help Democrats connect to young LGBT voters in Palm Springs. He raised $3.7 million last election cycle and is on track to raise even more in 2024. Already, he raised $889,000 last reporting quarter, per campaign finance records.

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Calvert, however, is not falling behind financially, raking in $904,000 last quarter, bringing in $2.7 million as of Sept. 30. Over the 30 years Calvert has held his seat, he has sought to moderate his image to appeal to independents and centrist Republicans in the area. He was one of 39 House Republicans who voted in favor of the Respect for Marriage Act, which will likely be a campaign focal point during the general election.

The California Republican will face off against Rollins and Democrat Anna Nevenic in the primary, with the top two vote-getters continuing to the general election. Of the 41st District’s roughly 470,000 registered voters, 36.62% report as Democrats and 36.21% report as Republicans, per district records as of Jan. 15. Trump won the district by 4 points in 2016 but only 1 point in 2020.