Myanmar Junta Teetering, But Victory Remains Elusive

More than three years after Senior General Min Aung Hlaing led a coup against Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy government, he is struggling to maintain control. His military has suffered repeated defeats, losing control of much of Myanmar’s borders, despite his efforts to reshuffle leadership and prosecute officers for their failures. Currently, pro-democracy resistance forces, made up of ethnic minority militias (Ethnic Armed Organizations, or EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDF) formed by Burmans and city dwellers opposed to the regime, now control 86% of the country’s territory and 67% of its population.

Seeing no way of retaking the country on the battlefield, Min Aung Hlaing has proposed holding elections in 2025 as an exit strategy. However, the likelihood of this happening is minimal. Ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have refused to allow government enumerators into their territories to conduct a census, which the State Administrative Council (SAC), the junta’s government, has claimed is a requirement for participation in the election.

Additionally, the junta government passed the Political Party Registration Law, which disqualified any party that missed the registration deadline and disqualifying those affiliated with armed resistance. As a result, nearly all opposition parties have been forcibly dissolved or banned, including Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the last two elections. The National Unity Government (NUG), a government in exile composed of former NLD members and leaders from several ethnic groups, has also been prohibited from participating in the election.

The 2021 coup against the elected government was a wake-up call for many ethnic militias that had been in a ceasefire with the government. It also became a rallying cry for the educated city dwellers and the Burman majority, who had been patiently hoping that democracy would finally take root in Burma. Watching the junta seize control of the country, kill hundreds of protesters, and imprison thousands of opposition leaders drove them to join the resistance. Now, with ethnic groups and Burmans working together, the Tatmadaw, or regime forces, is steadily losing ground.

In response to battlefield losses, the Tatmadaw has intensified its campaign of airstrikes and violence, displacing over 16% of the population of 55 million. This includes 3.3 million internally displaced people and at least 5.5 million who have fled to other countries, such as Thailand and Bangladesh. The economy has all but collapsed, with many losing their jobs as companies ceased operations. Public services, including healthcare and education, are crumbling, leaving 18 million in need of humanitarian assistance and 13 million facing food insecurity.

The regime remains afloat thanks to diplomatic support, money, and weapons from Beijing. Meanwhile, the U.S. and the EU have engaged with the National Unity Government (NUG), though neither has officially recognized it as Myanmar’s legitimate government. While China pours tens of billions into supporting the junta, U.S. assistance to the NUG has been limited to millions of dollars in non-lethal aid.

Historically, over the last 75 years of coups and military regimes, the Tatmadaw has operated as a state within a state, held together by ideology and a patronage system that offered generals a path to wealth and power. However, in the face of overwhelming losses, morale is plummeting, and unity is fraying. Much of the patronage was tied to resource extraction, selling minerals and forest products to China, but many of these trade routes are now controlled by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), cutting off the kickbacks that once flowed to Tatmadaw generals. In an effort to buy loyalty, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has promoted so many officers that the army has become bloated. A major who once commanded a battalion of 100-150 soldiers (the size of a U.S. Army company) now commands only 50 soldiers (about one and a half U.S. platoons). This top-heavy structure has diluted the kickbacks, which are already shrinking due to the war.

With the economy collapsing, patronage drying up, and the increasing likelihood of being killed by the resistance, the will to fight is rapidly diminishing. Reports of Tatmadaw troops, sometimes entire units, surrendering or defecting to the resistance have become increasingly common.

While this may seem like positive news for the pro-democracy forces, sadly, the end is not in sight. The EAOs are strongest in their own states and in the jungles they now control, but the Tatmadaw is holding on to its city strongholds. The primary causes of casualties among ethnic forces are airstrikes, drone strikes, and long-range artillery, which the resistance has no way to counter. As long as China continues supplying the Tatmadaw with weapons, money, and jet fuel, the conflict will persist.

The only hope for a resolution would be if the U.S. and its allies could completely cut off China’s support for the regime and if Washington would recognize the National Unity Government and provide them with the means to take down the junta’s aircraft, such as Stinger missiles. Without international intervention, however, the war could drag on indefinitely, with civilian casualties and displacements continuing to rise each week.