“It’s a great signal, and it really illuminates what we’re feeling here on the ground, which is, the state is in play and it’s a close margin of error race,” Domenici said, speaking to the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, adding “We’re on the cusp of becoming a red state.”

Trump plans to hold a rally in Albuquerque on Halloween, marking his second visit to the state since 2019. The rally comes as public polling indicates a firm Democratic presidential lead in the state. 

A recent Albuquerque Journal poll by Research & Polling Inc. found Vice President Kamala Harris is leading by 9 points, with 50% to Trump’s 41%. An average of polls shows Harris is ahead by 7.7 points. 

However, Republicans have outpaced Democrats in early voting in New Mexico. Domenici, a former business executive who runs the largest charter school non-profit in the state, said she’s seeing signs of enthusiasm as she’s traveling the state, challenging incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM). 

“It’s signaling really what we are experiencing here on the ground. We have lots of Democrats, lots of Hispanics, joining our team in all different ways, giving money, raising money, hosting events, organizing events — and that flow of Democrats just keeps on coming to our party,” Domenici explained. “It’s really quite exciting.”

The Republican candidate for Senate believes that Trump’s visit to the state will help boost her candidacy in her pursuit to flip Heinrich’s seat, which he has held since 2013. A poll conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal showed Heinrich leads in the race 51-40% among likely voters. An average of polling shows Heinrich is leading by ten points.

Domenici said that New Mexico is ground zero in the border crisis, which opens the door for Republicans to win over fed up voters.

While illegal immigration fell in certain parts of the country, New Mexico has been experiencing a spike in migrant encounters. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data published last month found they went up 22% in the state, going from 9,087 in July to 11,016 in August. Additionally, ten times as many migrants died in New Mexico near the U.S.-Mexico border in each of the last two years in comparison with just five years ago, according to reporting from the Associated Press.

“Texas has basically barricaded it’s own border and Arizona has done the same and we are right in the middle — and it’s terrible to describe this — but there’s a wall for half of our border and then absolutely nothing, it’s wide open,” she said.  

As Domenici fights to court Hispanic voters in the Southwestern state, the national focus has been on Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in which comedian Tony Hinchcliffe joked that Puerto Rico is a “floating island of garbage.”

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“I wish it hadn’t occurred — it doesn’t matter that New Mexico doesn’t have a lot of Puerto Ricans,” she said. “It was a little bit sloppy to let that whole thing happen. We all need to be very sensitive about how we communicate and how we describe different people from different cultures, different heritages and different backgrounds.”

After the interview, President Joe Biden made a clumsy remark trying to rebuke Hinchcliffe’s remarks by saying: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.”

Republicans widely panned Biden for disparaging Trump fans, much like Hillary Clinton’s 2016  “basket of deplorables” comment, while Biden quickly walked back the remark. A White House spokesman released Biden’s transcript in which it says “supporter’s” in reference to Hinchcliffe, not Trump’s supporters in the plural.

Roughly half the state of New Mexico is Hispanic or Latino.

The state started garnering attention after Richard Grennell, a key Trump ally who served as the acting director of national intelligence during his administration, posted the results of a sourceless “shock” poll, claiming the Republican presidential nominee was catching up with Harris in New Mexico on Oct. 21. 

🚨🚨🚨

New Mexico shock poll.

Harris 49, Trump 46

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) October 21, 2024

Historically, New Mexico has been won by both major political parties in the presidential race, with Democrats winning the state 15 times and Republicans winning 12 times since “The Land of Enchantment” became a state. Since the 2004 election, the state has trended in favor of Democrats with the party’s nominee taking New Mexico in each of the last four elections.

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No Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico since Pete Domenici in 2002, the six-term senator who is the late father of Nella Domenici. Heinrich’s campaign said the idea that either Trump or Domenici will win in the state is “simply not based in reality.”

“Much like the election deniers and conspiracy theorists Donald Trump and Nella Domenici will be rallying with on Thursday, the idea that either one of them will win in NM is simply not based in reality,” said Brad Elkins, the campaign manager for Heinrich in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner.