New York Republicans, whose state may determine whether their party controls the House, believe they have a wild card within the blue state: Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) exit from the gubernatorial race last week opened the door to Blakeman to face off against Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) next year, and Republicans are optimistic. They believe he can boost downballot Republicans in competitive House races, even if his chances of winning outright against Hochul are tough.
A boost from Blakeman could also help Republicans overcome Democratic headwinds after the 2025 elections. Experts say that could start with two Long Island congressional districts that Democrats have flipped in recent years, New York’s 3rd and 4th congressional districts, held by Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and Laura Gillen (D-NY), respectively.
“Flipping New York [Districts] 3 and 4 are going to be critical in keeping the House in 2026, and Bruce has proved in the last two elections that he can get moderates and independents out to vote for him,” Long Island-based GOP grassroots activist and media personality Kevin Smith told the Washington Examiner.
Blakeman, an abortion-rights Republican who heads a county with more registered Democrats than Republicans, has shown his ability to win over moderate and independent voters. At the same time, he has allied himself with Trump and runs circles through Republican media.
“He’s proven that he can [flip moderates and independents], winning 55% of the vote in the last two elections in a very purple county,” Smith continued. “You don’t pull numbers like that and Nassau County without appealing to moderates. He addresses real concerns that real people have. Not political platitudes.”
Blakeman is facing steep odds against Hochul, according to polling. A Siena University poll this month found him trailing against Hochul, 50% to 25%. Blakeman previously ran for state comptroller in 1998 and for a Senate seat in New York in 2010 but did not win either race.
Despite Blakeman’s previous statewide record, Republicans remain confident in Blakeman’s abilities and believe he can be successful if he can translate his Long Island success elsewhere.
“I think with Bruce, he’s got a pretty successful business model in Nassau County, and if he could translate that to everyday voters, I think he will be successful in downballot and fundraising and helping everyone running underneath him as well,” a Long Island Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner.
Republicans are hoping for a repeat of 2022 in New York, when former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin kept his race close with Hochul and helped New York Republicans flip several House seats, including the state’s 3rd and 4th congressional districts.
“You’ve got [a] very, very active, motivated base on Long Island that’s going to come out and is going to want to help out in any way possible. … We saw that happen with Zeldin,” the strategist continued. “The four Long Island congressional candidates were able to essentially save the whole House because of that last election.”
The House majority for the next Congress could come down to a handful of seats, deciding who controls Washington for the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
“The path to a House majority goes through the state of New York,” New York GOP communications director David Laska told the Washington Examiner.
Laska said the voter profile that continuously elects Blakeman is similar to those in Long Island, continuing to say “that can be the difference of putting some of our House candidates over the top, whether we’re talking about incumbents or challengers.”
The state of play for the House remains uncertain as 2026 approaches, with the majority in flux. Six of the 66 seats rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report are in New York, with one Republican and five Democratic incumbents.
While the House currently has the slimmest margin in history, Democrats remain on defense, with 37 seats rated as competitive compared to the 29 GOP seats marked as competitive. Historically, the House flips to the party opposite the White House during midterm elections, as it has for the last five presidencies.
Both parties have continuously pushed back on the other, slamming the opposite’s plans on affordability and healthcare. Still, despite the pushback from the GOP, the Left feels confident with 2026 right around the corner.
HOUSE OVERSIGHT WANTS ANSWER ON MINNESOTA SOMALI FRAUD SCHEME
“Donald Trump said it best: Bruce Blakeman is ‘MAGA all the way,’” Hochul campaign communications director Sarafina Chitika said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “He’s sold out Nassau and tied himself to Trump’s toxic agenda at every turn, backing policies that raise costs, gut healthcare, and undermine abortion rights.
“New Yorkers don’t elect MAGA extremists that bow down to Trump and make their lives more expensive, which is why Backup Blakeman has lost every statewide race he’s ever run, just like he’ll lose next November.”