Newsom draws contrasts with Biden as he leads Democratic debate counterprogramming

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is up to something. The question is, what?

Newsom has long been rumored to be gearing up for a presidential run, with 2028 the supposed target. But a series of recent moves has raised speculation he could be setting up to try next year, or at least getting in position in case of emergency.

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“He’s doing what any able and ambitious politician is doing,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “He’s putting himself in position to run for president if Biden doesn’t. I think he wants to be president very much. I don’t think he would run against Biden.”

Newsom, 55, has been building a national profile for years. He’s now in his second term as governor of California, the nation’s largest state, and has campaigned and bought ad space in other states, signaling larger intentions.

He’s campaigning for President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party this week. The second Republican presidential debate will occur at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, so Newsom is being unleashed to provide counterprogramming and protect his home turf.

Some of Newsom’s other moves seem less straightforward.

He’s now scheduled to debate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), an actual 2024 candidate, on Nov. 30 in Georgia. The debate will air on Fox News with Sean Hannity as moderator, making it something of a road game for Newsom but nonetheless a way for him to showcase his skill set nationally.

The California governor further raised eyebrows over the weekend by vetoing a bill that would require judges to weigh whether parents affirm a child’s gender identity in custody battles. A separate veto stopped a bill that would have prevented California state prisons from cooperating with federal immigration authorities. Both moves were seen as tacks toward the center as Newsom looks beyond his liberal home state.

“The governor of California is going to be automatically suspect to a lot of moderates if he runs for president,” Bannon said. “And I think Newsom is a very smart politician.”

Newsom’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

While he is saying the right things, indicating his support for Biden and ruling out a run in 2024, things are looking increasingly shaky for the 80-year-old incumbent.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll made many headlines for its finding that Biden trailed former President Donald Trump by 10 points among registered voters. While that poll is likely an outlier, it comports with Biden’s long-standing low approval ratings and amplifies questions about his age and fitness for the role.

Recent age-related controversies include the president telling the same story twice within just a few minutes during a New York fundraiser and reports that he’s wearing sneakers more often in an attempt to avoid falling. A CBS News-YouGov poll found that just 34% of voters think Biden would make it to the end of a second term.

All of which indicates softness in the incumbent’s position. Should something happen, Newsom would be well placed to step in.

“Newsom is not the first California governor to try and position himself for a presidential run. It’s not surprising,” California State University, Fresno professor Jeff Cummins said. “As far as aligning himself for the Plan B in 2024, I don’t think it hurts him to do that. It’s what he wants to do in 2028 anyway, so you might as well go through the motions and start to modify your policy positions the way he is.”

However, Cummins added that Newsom’s “realistic shot” is for 2028.

“I don’t see Biden stepping down at all,” he said.

The larger problem for Newsom, whether in 2024 or 2028, could be Vice President Kamala Harris. She is a fellow Californian and the first female, black, and Asian vice president, which could make things awkward for the white male Newsom should he try to overtake her. Yet her approval ratings are dismal, and hopes are fading for her to further connect with Democratic voters.

Team Harris was reportedly upset by Newsom’s plan to debate DeSantis, and even his rumored status as a 2024 backup comes with some risk.

“There’s certainly a concern about stepping on her toes,” Cummins said. “That’s the job of the vice president, to fill in if Biden has some health scare or health issue that would incapacitate him. That’s why we have a vice president.”

Not all of those issues would necessarily be resolved even in 2028, should Harris be a nominee in that election cycle. But Newsom has again said the right things on this point, praising Harris and calling her the best choice to stay on as Biden’s vice president.

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Newsom enjoys relatively healthy approval ratings in his home state, and his national profile is steadily rising. At some point, the presidential rumors are likely to be confirmed, argues Republican strategist John Feehery.

“It will either be in 2024 or 2028, but either way, he is running for president,” Feehery said. “And he has to guard against the charge that he will do to the U.S. what he did to California, hence the tack to the center.”