November to Remember: Any chance of an upset, or is Beshear home dry?

2023 may not have the fireworks of the 2024 elections, but there is still plenty up for grabs. in this “off-year”, most of which takes place on November 7. Virginia will be keenly watched, particularly by followers of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and whether he can springboard Republican success into national aspirations. Meanwhile the governor’s mansion is up for grabs in Kentucky and Mississippi. New Jersey’s Republicans believe they have a real shot at turn the state red in legislative elections, while there are also fierce mayoral and district attorney battles throughout the United States. There are also several fascination referendums, particularly in Ohio, Maine and Texas. This Washington Examiner series, Forgotten Elections, will dive into all of these and more over the following two weeks. Part 14 will deal with the Kentucky governor’s race.

The nation’s most hotly contested election right now just might be in Kentucky.

Two young, up-and-coming political stars face off in the Bluegrass State’s governor’s race Tuesday night. Incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), 45 years old and the nation’s most popular Democratic governor, faces off against Trump-endorsed challenger Daniel Cameron, who is just 37.

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Beshear is viewed as a slight polling favorite, though he isn’t taking anything for granted.

“Beshear’s campaign has been active and aggressive in pushing to turn out the vote and to keep the lead that people have thought he enjoyed,” University of Kentucky political science professor Stephen Voss said. “If you’re judging just from the behavior of the campaigns, neither side is acting as if the race is effectively done.”

The incumbent has already beaten the odds once.

In a state that Donald Trump won by 26 points, Beshear eked out a win over unpopular incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, 49.2% to 48.8%, four years ago. He has remained popular in the state ever since and holds a cash advantage over Cameron, raising $17.3 million for this election cycle as of mid-September.

Polls taken in October found Beshear with a lead ranging from 2 points all the way up to 16 points. But the most recent poll, an Emerson College survey taken between Oct. 20 and Nov. 2, had Cameron leading for the first time by 1%.

“Kentucky voters tend to drift to the Republican late in the campaign season,” Voss said. “Republicans get surprisingly high numbers [on election day] compared to the polling because the polls miss part of the GOP electorate.”

National eyes will be watching for several reasons. One is to see which way the political winds are blowing in order to divine which party has momentum going into the 2024 presidential contest. Another is to see which young star gets a leg up toward running for higher office.

“Both candidates have a bright future for their parties, win or lose,” said Scott Jennings, a longtime adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). “They’re both really capable people. I’ve had personal experience with both. The winner will be vaulted into the national conversation, and the loser, I still think, will be viable for future opportunities.”

Beshear’s father was himself a two-term Democratic governor of Kentucky, though a campaign spokesman told CNN, “He is his own man, his own brand, his own governor.” If he’s able to win a second term in a red state, Beshear could be looked at as a future candidate for president or vice president.

Cameron may be even more buzzworthy.

He served as legal counsel to McConnell from 2015 to 2017, then was elected Kentucky Attorney General at the age of 33. In September 2020, Cameron was among the final 20 for Trump’s list of Supreme Court nominees. He is also Kentucky’s first black attorney general and could become the state’s first black governor and the nation’s first black Republican governor.

“Whoever wins the Kentucky governor’s race will be thrust onto the nation stage in a prominent way,” Voss said. “Electing an African American as governor will naturally attract a lot of attention nationwide. But if Democrats can win yet again in a state as pro-Trump as Kentucky, that would signal that voters, including Trump voters, are more up for grabs than they’ve been given credit for.”

Democrats could look to copy Beshear’s “secret sauce” in other states should he emerge victorious, Voss added.

One part of the recipe may be capitalizing on the issue of abortion, which is now a matter of state policy again after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade in 2022.

Beshear’s campaign has hit the issue hard, running ads featuring a woman who was raped by her stepfather at just 12 years old and became pregnant. She eventually miscarried but is speaking out against no-exceptions abortion bans.

“Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it’s like to stand in my shoes,” she said in the statewide ad taken out by Beshear’s reelection campaign.

Following this and another similar ad, Cameron announced he would sign rape and incest exceptions into law if sent a bill by Kentucky’s Republican-controlled state legislature. He called the ad “despicable.”

“[Beshear] lectures us on partisanship and unity and then runs disgusting, false attacks,” Cameron said.

Republicans are playing up social issues too, going after Beshear for vetoing a bill that would have banned gender reassignment surgery for minors.

Elsewhere, the GOP is working to nationalize the race to appeal to the state’s Republican base. The Republican National Committee says Cameron would “prevent another lockdown,” reduce violent crime, improve schools, and reverse “Beshear-backed Bidenomics.”

Democrats, outside of the abortion issue, are working to localize the race, focusing on Beashear’s popularity and his role in responding to disasters, such as a pair of tornadoes that hit the state under his watch.

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Beshear is seen as a slight favorite for now, though Jennings says Kentucky polling is notoriously inaccurate. He points to several McConnell campaigns that polls said were close only for the incumbent to break away on Election Day. Either way, he thinks the result will hold significance far outside the Bluegrass State borders.

“To take back this governor’s race would be a big deal for Republicans,” Jennings said. “Kentucky has been a bellwether for national elections going back 20 years. There are tea leaves to be read here and lessons to be learned for which way the national winds may be blowing.”