Ohio anti-abortion movement losses may buoy Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s chances in red state

As one of the two most vulnerable Senate Democrats in the 2024 cycle, Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) reelection chances hinge on his ability to spur Ohioans from both his party and independents to the polls in an increasingly red state.

The results of Ohio ballot measures from recent months offer Brown and supporters at least some reason for optimism heading into his reelection bid for the Senate seat he first won in 2006. It’s a crucial race for Senate Democrats, who currently have a 51-49 majority over Republicans. With West Virginia’s Senate seat virtually guaranteed to go Republican when Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin retires in early 2025, Ohio and Montana, with Democratic Sen. Jon Tester also facing reelection, are key Senate races that are likely to decide who wins the majority.

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After years as a presidential swing state, Ohio is now firmly in the Republican camp. Former President Donald Trump twice won Ohio with about 54% of the vote. And the reelection campaign of President Joe Biden is showing no real signs, 11 months out from Election Day, that Democrats will seriously play in the Buckeye State amid an expected rematch with Trump.

What would account for this potential 2024 split-ticket voting? A scenario in which Ohio backs the Republican presidential ticket but still reelects Democratic Brown? It’s the same problem vexing Republicans nationally — abortion. Since the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs decision effectively made abortion a state issue rather than a national right, ballot measures in seven states have backed abortion rights in varying forms.

And it happened twice in Ohio. Democrats gathered enough signatures to force a November 2023 vote on a ballot measure to enshrine abortion access in the state’s constitution. After abortion-related ballot losses not in red states such as Kentucky and Montana, anti-abortion forces tried to make the fall Ohio measure tougher to pass. An August referendum would have raised the threshold to change the state’s constitution from a bare majority to three-fifths.

That measure lost, while abortion rights supporters easily passed the original, underlying abortion rights proposal, even against fierce opposition from Ohio’s Republican legislative majority and GOP Gov. Mike DeWine.

Template for victory?
Brown has been a supporter of abortion rights throughout his political career, which began in 1974 with a state House victory just out of college, followed by eight years as secretary of state and 14 years as a House member. Brown is best known as a liberal populist who is a strong booster of labor unions and a foe of free trade agreements with other countries. Facing reelection in 2024, Brown is effectively running on his personal political brand in a state where Republicans hold all other statewide offices, dominate the state legislature, and have a 10-5 edge in the House delegation Ohio sends to Washington, D.C.

While Democrats claimed the twin abortion referendum votes show abortion is a winning topic for 2024, Ohio’s increasingly red orientation makes for an uphill Senate reelection battle by Brown.

“Ohio has drifted more red on a statewide level since he was first elected in 2006,” said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron. Still, Cohen said, Brown has an edge being an incumbent and at least a “somewhat” popular figure in the state.

Brown won his last reelection bid in 2018, 53.4% to 46.6% against then-Rep. Jim Renacci. Brown’s ability to hang on to his seat may come down to Democrats’ ability to energize their base on key topics such as abortion and marijuana — Ohio voters in November also approved a ballot measure legalizing marijuana for recreational use (though federal law still makes its possession and use illegal.)

“The difficulty is our success in 2023 may mean that national funders look to other states where there will be similar ballot issues,” former Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern said.

“And if you are a busy person living in the suburbs of Ohio, you know they both passed, so you’re going to assume that there are other things we can pay attention to,” Redfern said, referring to the Ohio Issue 1 ballot initiative to implement the successful constitutional amendment on abortion rights and Issue 2, the statutory measure that legalized recreational marijuana in the state.

Though both issues, favored by younger voters in particularly large numbers, do have the potential to motivate Democrats to get to the polls, along with independents. Redfern pointed to the “resurgence” in Ohio from voters on both abortion and marijuana as an “opportunity” for Democrats in 2024.

GOP strategist Mehek Cooke thinks other topics, such as the economy, will be more important to Ohioans come election time. That will potentially give Brown’s eventual Republican opponent an avenue to overtake him in a general election.

“Brown’s going to have a tough time, given the state economy in Ohio, given the struggles that many of us are facing in the workforce, and the failure of Bidenomics. Brown has truly been a puppet for Joe Biden,” Cooke said.

The Republican Senate primary is March 24, 2024. The party has three candidates vying to go head-to-head with Brown, including Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno.

GOP strategist Mark Weaver believes that any of the three could beat Brown in a general election matchup.

“All of them are men of accomplishment who have a strong message. That will be a great contrast to Sherrod Brown’s liberal record in the Senate,” Weaver said.

In presidential election cycles, candidates are usually tied to their party’s presidential nominee, a factor that could be a drag on Brown in Ohio as Biden’s approval ratings continue to sink.

Recent polling released by Emerson College shows Brown currently leading all three GOP candidates within the margin of error, with Dolan polling at 38% to Brown’s 41%.

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While Democrats tout those polling leads, Republicans note Brown is still far under the 50% mark he’ll need to win reelection.

“Sherrod Brown has the big sign on his back — it says ‘Vulnerable Senator,’” Weaver said. “Next year, Sherrod Brown will face a formidable opponent in a red state. With an extremely unpopular doddering Democrat president at the top of his ticket.”