EXCLUSIVE — Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA) and Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln have advanced in California’s 9th Congressional District primary election, and an internal memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee indicates a high chance of the seat flipping red.

In the battle for the seat in the Central Valley, Lincoln leads the incumbent by 44% to 40% among 400 likely voters in California, according to an NMB Research survey. While Lincoln is the lesser-known candidate, the two competitors have similar net favorability ratings. The Republican’s image is 31% favorable and 14% unfavorable, while the Democrat’s is 37% favorable and 19% unfavorable.  

“As a Marine and Mayor, Kevin Lincoln always puts service over self, and he’ll be the Valley’s independent fighter to tackle violent crime, homelessness and inflation,” NRCC spokesman Ben Petersen said. 

“Self-serving millionaire politician Josh Harder cheats Central Valley families, raising their taxes while stashing his own venture capital loot in a Cayman Islands tax haven,” Petersen added. 

Politico reported in January that Harder, known for his support of taxing the wealthy, holds investments totaling between $15,000 and $50,000 in BVA Fund IX and between $1,000 and $15,000 in BVA Fund VIII, both in the Cayman Islands, according to his 2022 financial disclosures. The funds are linked to Bessemer Venture Associates, where Harder worked before being elected to Congress. Harder has advocated against tax avoidance by wealthy people on social media. Harder’s office said the investments were obtained during his work at Bessemer and that he hasn’t taken part in stock trading while in office, noting the congressman rejects corporate PAC money.

“Rep. Harder has never bought, sold, or traded a single stock while in office,” Harder spokeswoman Jen Fox said in a statement to Politico. “He has no control over funds from his old career and has never and will never take a dime of corporate PAC money. Josh will continue being a leader for campaign finance reform including banning members from ever trading stocks or accepting corporate PAC money.”

The internal poll shows support for Lincoln grows to 48% once likely voters learn about his background as the grandson of a Mexican immigrant and Marine veteran with mayoral experience. The question included Lincoln’s policy goals, such as tackling the homelessness crisis, supporting police, and lowering the cost of living. When likely voters learned that Harder is a businessman and member of Congress and worked to broaden the availability of affordable healthcare and address the homeless, 46% reported they would vote for the Democrat. When putting both candidates on the ballot, Lincoln leads Harder, 50% to 43%.

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Lincoln, a third-generation Stocktonian who served in the U.S. Marine Corps before being elected mayor in 2020, launched his House bid in July. California’s 9th District is widely seen as a competitive race after lines were redrawn recently. The race has been deemed likely Democratic by the nonpartisan CookPoliticalReport, showing a Democratic +5 partisan voting index in favor of Harder. 

In 2022, Harder beat Republican challenger Tom Patti by nearly 10 percentage points, and data from the California secretary of state show voters in the region lean Democratic. Harder once represented District 10 but was reelected to District 9 after redistricting.