South Carolina‘s first-in-the-South primary lacks the high-energy campaigning that befits one of the first four early nominating states in a presidential primary, with only one of the three major candidates seriously campaigning in the state.
Neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump are investing millions of dollars in the Palmetto State. Biden has only appeared twice in the state this year, and Trump has forsaken South Carolina to campaign in Nevada and handle legal problems. However, that could change in the coming weeks.
Only former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is hosting rallies and spending millions of dollars in her home state, the most of any candidate running for president in 2024.
South Carolina was meant to be the state that would save Haley’s struggling campaign against Trump and reestablish Biden’s strong connection with black voters in a repeat of his 2020 election.
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But Trump’s dominance in the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating contests has snuffed out most of the energy of a truly competitive primary. Biden’s struggles and unpopularity as president have dampened a primary that no longer looks surprising in what the results will be: an eventual rematch between Trump and Biden.
Even political commentators are unsurprised by Trump’s decision not to appear in South Carolina following New Hampshire.
“He’s not going to waste any time, money, and resources in a state he knows he’s going to win. He might make a token appearance between now and primary day,” Mikel Norris, a political science professor at Coastal Carolina University, told the Washington Examiner. “He doesn’t need to campaign; he’s already got the vote. Haley’s the one that needs to campaign in South Carolina.”
Advertising figures bear out the lackluster campaigning for both Trump and Biden compared to Haley, who is fighting for her presidential campaign’s future against Trump.
Haley’s campaign, affiliated super PAC Stand for America Fund, and allied groups have spent $4.32 million in TV, cable, radio, and other points of contact with voters through satellite dish or streaming advertising in South Carolina from Dec. 31 through Feb. 24, the date of the Palmetto State’s GOP primary, according to figures from Medium Buying. (The Democratic primary will be held Feb. 3.)
Americans for Prosperity Action, the Koch-backed group supporting Haley’s campaign, is spending $2.15 million supporting her in the Palmetto State.
Ironically, Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who has since dropped out of the race, spent $3.6 million on total advertising more than any other individual campaign or super PAC. He had battled Haley for second-place status behind Trump, but after losing by 30 percentage points to Trump during the Iowa caucuses, he soon exited the race.
Meanwhile, Biden and his affiliated super PAC Unite the Country spent $390,940 on advertising, far below the Haley figures.
After New Hampshire, neither Trump nor his affiliated super PAC has gone up on cable, radio, television, or satellite/streaming advertising in South Carolina.
The Trump campaign declined to share data on how much money it is spending in South Carolina, but a spokesman taunted Haley in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“We don’t telegraph our strategy, but suffice to say that it’s working because Nikki Haley is getting crushed in her home state by every metric. Nikki Haley is getting crushed in her home state by every metric,” said Steven Cheung.
Haley is in an uphill climb to defeat Trump for the GOP nomination after losing the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary to Trump.
In her home state of South Carolina, Trump is leading her in polls. A new Monmouth University-Washington Post poll released on Thursday showed Trump leading Haley 58% to 32% among GOP primary voters in the Palmetto State.
But Haley has claimed she won’t bow to pressure to exit the race. The former governor has held or scheduled at least five rallies in South Carolina since the conclusion of the New Hampshire primary, with more rallies likely scheduled.
“Think about mining; gems are embedded in the wall. You have to make an effort to chip them out. Right now, voters are embedded in support for Trump,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and the founder of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University. “Nikki Haley needs to spend money to chip them away from Trump, and the big question is, is there enough money? Are there enough chisels? Is this even possible?”
Norris said that if Haley can’t win her home state, it’s unlikely she could win the nomination. “It goes down to that idea of frankly the tribal loyalty of Trump voters in the Republican Party,” he said. “There is a substantial minority in the party that doesn’t want to see Trump nominated, but it’s not a majority.”
The former president has largely taken a more hands-off approach, pushing instead for surrogates to stump on his behalf. Trump’s campaign announced two South Carolina press conferences on Thursday featuring allies such as Reps. Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Russell Fry (R-SC), attacking Haley’s “weakness” over illegal immigration and China.
The Haley campaign did not respond to a request for comment. But a Haley ally told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s reticence to campaign in the Palmetto State is likely due to his legal drama.
“What you’re seeing comes down to this: You have one candidate who is running a real race to cinch the nomination and defeat Joe Biden in the fall, and the other is focused on fighting for his life in court,” the source said.
On the Democratic side, South Carolina remains a crucial state for Biden given this year marks its first-place status in the DNC schedule, a reward for uplifting Biden’s campaign in 2020.
Lesser-known Democratic primary candidates such as Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) have run lackluster campaigns in the state, where voters spoke over his remarks, or, in Marianne Williamson’s case, simply skipped the state for Nevada.
Although Biden allies in New Hampshire were disappointed in losing their status, they nevertheless staged a successful write-in campaign that defeated Phillips and avoided embarrassing headlines.
Still, Biden needs a dominant display in the Palmetto State to make up for a tough 2023 that featured a global crisis between Israel and Hamas, rising disapproval numbers, and a stagnant Congress struggling to approve aid to Ukraine as it battles Russia.
“We’re stunningly important, South Carolina, to the national Democratic presidential primary because we’re the first test of African American support,” Huffmon said. “And so a low turnout, which is going to happen, is not good for Biden. And if he has a lower-than-expected African American turnout, that’s kind of even worse. So this is sort of a test of what he is going to need to do in the general election to excite the African American voting bloc and get them to turn out.”
The Biden campaign has faced reports of a lack of black voter enthusiasm, especially among black youth and black men, that could threaten his reelection campaign if it is not handled in a delicate manner.
High-profile surrogates, including Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), and former Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Joyce Beatty (D-OH), have stumped in South Carolina on behalf of Biden since October. The Democratic National Committee has also launched a six-figure ad buy last week targeting minority, rural, and young voters in the Palmetto State and another six-figure ad buy in Nevada. The Biden campaign has also started general election advertising on reproduction rights, seizing on the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
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The Biden campaign declined to comment on a Washington Examiner inquiry. But the South Carolina Democratic Party defended the president in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“President Biden knows South Carolina voters, black voters, and Southern voters matter and is the only person running for president taking that seriously,” said spokeswoman Alyssa Bradley. “For months, President Biden and Vice President Harris have followed through with their commitment and invested in our historic first-in-the-nation primary, and South Carolina Democrats are thrilled and thankful they’re continuing to do so all the way up to Feb. 3, 2024.”