Ranking Kamala Harris’s toughest 2024 battlegrounds – Washington Examiner

Vice President Kamala Harris’s emergence as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee against former President Donald Trump has turbocharged a race that once looked predestined for the GOP.

Harris is closing in on Trump in several national polls, where the former president used to lead President Joe Biden by five to six percentage points before Biden exited the 2024 race.

In the two weeks since Harris consolidated the Democratic Party behind her presidential campaign, she has broken fundraising records by raising $310 million in July and ending the month with $377 million cash on hand. Harris far outraised Trump, who brought in $138.7 million and ended the month with $327 cash on hand.

Before Harris announces her running mate decision next week, the Washington Examiner ranked the battleground states according to which would be the hardest for the vice president to win.

1. Pennsylvania

Vice President Kamala Harris visits William Cramp Elementary School on Monday, April 8, 2024, in Philadelphia. Harris went to Pennsylvania, a battleground state, to promote debt relief in a meeting with city and school employees in Philadelphia. (Alejandro A. Alvarez/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP)

The path to the White House for both parties will likely include winning Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important battleground state. But recent polling suggests Harris may have more work to do in convincing skeptical voters to support her presidential campaign.

A new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released Tuesday showed Trump leading Harris by four percentage points, 50% to 46%, in Pennsylvania. Another poll commissioned by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund but conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Harris trailing Trump, 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided in the race.

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) could join Harris’s ticket as her running mate in order to shore up the state’s support during the November election.

2. North Carolina

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Greensboro, North Carolina, Thursday, July 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

North Carolina last voted for a Democratic president in 2008 when former President Barack Obama ran for office. But Democrats are hoping they can flip the state giving them an added boost in the quest for 270 electoral votes.

But the Bloomberg poll showed Trump is still leading Harris by two percentage points, 48% to 46%.

A RealClearPolitics poll average in North Carolina also shows Trump leading Harris by nearly six percentage points, further dampening hopes for Democrats. The Cook Political Report rates the state as lean Republican in the presidential matchup.

However, the Trump campaign recently increased its ad spending in the state starting Thursday. Trump held his first campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, after Biden announced he was suspending his campaign, suggesting the former president is not taking the state for granted.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) was among the possible running mate contenders for Harris but took himself out of the race, fearing that Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson would declare himself acting governor if Cooper were on the campaign trail with Harris.

3. Arizona

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a Biden-Harris campaign event at El Rio Neighborhood Center in Tucson, Arizona, Friday, April 12, 2024. (Grace Trejo/Arizona Daily Star via AP)

With Harris on top of the Democratic ticket, there has been much hope that she could help the party in the Sunbelt battleground states. Yet, polling in Arizona remains mixed, with the vice president reinvigorating voters, but Trump is still leading.

A RealClearPolitics average of the state shows Trump besting Harris by a little over four percentage points. An Emerson College/The Hill poll from last week showed Trump again in the lead over Harris, 49% to 44%. Yet the Bloomberg poll shows Harris in the lead by two percentage points, 49% to 47%.

Harris and her soon-to-be-announced running mate will hold a rally in Arizona next Friday as part of her battleground state tour. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) could have joined the ticket as her vice president by then with the hope that he can deliver the state in November.

4. Nevada

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to people protesting for higher minimum wage outside of a McDonald’s in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Similar to Arizona, Nevada is another western swing state Harris will need to win to secure her first term as president. According to the Bloomberg poll, she leads Trump by two percentage points, 47% to 45%. But the RealClearPolitics average in Nevada shows Trump leading Harris by four percentage points.

However, the last time the state voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 2004, when former President George W. Bush won the White House.

Harris will make her seventh visit to Nevada this year when she and her running mate visit Las Vegas next week. Nevada is the most diverse state among the battlegrounds, which could help Harris as the nation’s first female vice president who identifies as both black and southeast Asian.

5. Wisconsin

A pedestrian walks along the sidewalk past a sign in support of Kamala Harris on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Kayla Wolf)

After shoring up most of the Democratic Party’s support for her presidential bid, Harris traveled to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for her first campaign rally last week.

The Cook Political Report rates Wisconsin as a toss-up, and Trump leads the vice president by only 0.2% according to a RealClearPolitics state average. She also leads Trump by two percentage points, according to the Bloomberg survey, and tied with Trump at 47% in the state according to the Emerson College poll, giving Harris more of a chance to make a mark on voters.

Wisconsin, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, makes up the “blue wall,” which, if Harris wins, will likely guarantee victory in November.

6. Georgia

Vice President Kamala Harris waves during a campaign rally, Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia marked the first time since 1992 that a Democratic president had won the state. Harris seeks to replicate this victory by leaning on popular Democratic leaders in the state.

At an Atlanta, Georgia, rally, the campaign featured Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Jon Ossoff (D-GA), former gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, and a performance by rapper Megan Thee Stallion.

Harris then challenged Trump to meet her on the debate stage after he appeared to pull out from previously scheduled debates.

“Well, Donald,” Harris said. “I do hope you’ll reconsider. Meet me on the debate stage … because, as the saying goes, if you’ve got something to say, say it to my face.”

According to the Bloomberg poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47% in Georgia, giving another indication that the state, also part of the sun belt, could be in play for the vice president.

7. Michigan

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event, Wednesday, July 17, 2024, in Kalamazoo, Michigan. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Harris might have the best shot of winning Michigan among all the battleground states. A RealClearPolitics poll average shows Harris leading Trump in the state by two percentage points, 48.3% to 46.3%. She also leads him by 11 percentage points in the Bloomberg poll, 53% to 42%.

But looming over the state is the more than 101,000 people who voted uncommitted during the Democratic primary in February when Biden was still leading the ticket. It is unclear whether those votes will support Harris in November.

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Should Harris walk the fine line between supporting Israel’s right to self-defense while condemning unnecessary civilian deaths against Palestinians living in Gaza, it could help her definitively win the state.

The Cook Political Report ranks the state as a toss-up.