Registered and likely voters pick different candidates in Biden-Trump rematch: Poll

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied ahead of an increasingly likely rematch in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new national poll.

In a new Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was preferred by registered voters, 51% to 48%. However, among those who are likely voters, Biden received 51% to Trump’s 49%. Both of the matchups are within the survey’s margins of error.

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The two men, Biden, aged 80, and Trump, 77, are poised for a possible rematch of the 2020 election, during which Biden defeated Trump by flipping several pivotal battleground states. As Trump faces mounting legal battles and Biden faces increasing scrutiny over his advanced age and cognitive health as well as his involvement in his son Hunter Biden’ foreign business dealings, a 2024 matchup could be closer than their 2020 encounter.

Additionally, since they continue to poll within the margin of error in matchups, predicting a winner is impossible.

While Biden bested Trump among likely voters who are “absolutely certain” they will vote, Trump beats the president by a significant number with those who are “less than certain” they will vote. Within this group, 62% said they’d choose Trump, while 37% would select Biden.

Biden and Trump aren’t only neck and neck in national measures. In fact, the two are near-tied in several polls of battleground states, which could end up deciding the 2024 presidential election.

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Both of the candidates appear likely to win their respective primaries, with Trump only expanding his lead over competitors amid his various indictments. Biden, as the incumbent president, has the blessing of the Democratic National Committee and has further been able to stave off potential challenges from prominent Democratic politicians across the country.

Despite their respective leads, majorities of registered voters reported in a different survey wanting neither to be president again. According to the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist national poll, 65% don’t want Biden to serve another term. At the same time, a similar amount, 60%, don’t want Trump either.