New polling shows voters in Republican states supporting legislation that could open the door for marijuana reform across the country, albeit for very different reasons than those generally touted by legalization activists.
The trend might undermine efforts by President Joe Biden to shore up his electoral coalition ahead of the 2024 general election by advancing marijuana reforms he promised on the 2020 campaign trail.
The Washington Examiner reviewed a poll conducted by Forbes Tate Partners on behalf of the Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education, and Regulation prior to its publication on Tuesday, which showed a majority of voters in Missouri, Ohio, and Wyoming supporting the STATES Act, a bipartisan bill that would see federal marijuana policy mimic that of each state. The poll sampled 600 voters in the three states, each of which has differing marijuana policies, between Feb. 13 and 27.
In Missouri, 67% of voters backed the bill, which was reintroduced to Congress in December 2023, including 62% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, and 63% of independents.
In Ohio, the legislation saw support from 61% of respondents, 61% of Republicans, 82% of Democrats, and 43% of independents.
And in Wyoming, where total marijuana prohibition remains the law of the state, 72% of respondents supported the STATES Act, including 65% of Republicans, 82% of Democrats, and 84% of independents.
Poll respondents gave several reasons for supporting the legislation, ranging from general support for legalization to economic benefits and personal freedoms, yet the top reason, earning plurality support in each state, was “because it protects states’ rights to decide locally.”
“As we look at the federal cannabis landscape, there’s kind of two different theories of change along the route,” CPEAR Executive Director Andrew Freedman told the Washington Examiner. “Either the federal government is going to wait until every last jurisdiction legalizes some kind of cannabis for medical or adult use form, or there’s cannabis policy that works for both states that have prohibition and states that want to go forward with adult and medical.”
“We had a theory that we had something here, with STATES Act 2.0, that actually could kind of catch fire in a prohibition state,” he continued. “Wyoming, that 72% overall with 65% Republican, shows that there is a landing spot there, but that is not ‘I am pro- or anti-cannabis,’ that is more, ‘This is clearly already a state’s issue and should really be left to the states in order to decide.’”
Doug Usher, head of the insights division at Forbes Tate Partners, additionally told the Washington Examiner that “from a data standpoint,” bipartisan support for marijuana legalization is “outrunning its policy outcome at this point.”
“There are data in here to encourage people from both parties to support this,” Usher explained, claiming the results don’t necessarily favor one political party over the other in pushing for marijuana reform. “We’ve seen that historically, where parties ended up behind where the people are, eventually they catch up.”
Marijuana policy could play a significant role in the 2024 general election, with Biden actively pursuing federal rescheduling of the psychoactive plant from Schedule I to Schedule III. Biden has not yet published a Statement of Administration Policy regarding the STATES Act, which is still in consideration at committee.
Former President Donald Trump had said he believes that marijuana policy should be set by states and backed the STATES Act when it was first introduced to Congress by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and then-Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner in 2018.
Biden vowed on the 2020 campaign trail to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and expunge the records of all simple possession offenders. The president brought up his efforts on the matter during his recent State of the Union address, though they fall short of fully making good on those promises.
Freedman told the Washington Examiner that rescheduling marijuana does not compare to outright decriminalization, and he suggested that, given the support voiced in this poll, Republicans could stand to benefit politically from taking up marijuana reform in greater numbers.
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“The truth is that reclassification makes almost no difference to an individual’s rights or freedoms in the country. Once people kind of understand that and the flurry of the news dies down, and somebody’s like, ‘Wait, literally, that did nothing towards my independent freedoms,’ there’s still the same pathway that exists here,” he stated. “I do think what this sets up is a tangible lane for Republicans to grab this issue in a way that is different.”
“You can in the same breath say, ‘I have a history of being against cannabis. I’m against cannabis in my state but that I recognize that some states have gone forward with this, and the train has left the station,’” Freedman continued. “There’s a lane that is not the decades-old lane of I’m either pro- or anti-legalization. It’s ‘I’m pro states’ rights here’ that is open for Republicans to take, and you’re starting to actually see Republicans take that.”