Republicans hit more roadblocks in holding vulnerable Santos seat

House Republicans are hitting several roadblocks in holding down former New York Republican Rep. George Santos‘s seat in 2024, with the latest issue coming from the candidates looking to replace him.

Phillip Sean Grillo, a man from Queens, New York, was found guilty Wednesday on charges stemming from the riots at the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, including felonies and misdemeanors for obstruction of a federal proceeding and disorderly conduct, among others.

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This is the latest in a string of obstacles for the GOP as they faced an even narrower majority due to the historic expulsion of Santos last week. The embattled New York Republican continually made the news for his antics, legal woes, lies, and interactions with the media since his first week in Congress. New York Republicans, who sought Santos’s removal for months, took a victory lap after Santos’s expulsion, confident that the party could replace the former freshman with “a good conservative Republican.”

However, that might be easier said than done. The special election to fill Santos’s seat is on Feb. 13, 2024, and 19 people have declared their candidacy for the Long Island seat, including Grillo, who was arrested by the FBI on Feb. 23, 2021, on the Jan. 6 charges. He said during his trial that he didn’t know that Congress met inside the Capitol, but admitted that he is running for the congressional seat, according to the Hill.

Cook Political Report has Santos’s 3rd Congressional District seat rated as a “toss-up,” meaning Democrats could swoop in and take back the seat that Santos turned red for the first time in five years during the 2022 midterm elections and President Joe Biden carried in 2020. Partly because of redistricting, House seats in the Empire State have become unusual battleground races targeted by Republicans despite residing in a deep blue state. Though Republicans had a less-than-expected performance in the 2022 midterm elections overall, a red wave in New York House races helped the GOP secure their razor-thin majority in the House.

If Santos’s seat falls to the Democrats next February, it will bring the Republicans down to a two-seat majority, which could easily allow Democrats to retake the chamber in 2024.

Democrats have a strong chance of winning back the seat, as former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represented New York’s Third District before Santos, announced he will be running for his old seat. Given he beat Santos in 2020 by nearly 13 points before retiring from Congress to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) in 2022, he is emerging as the party’s front-runner, and it is possible he could make his return to the House in the purple district.

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan, who successfully flipped her New York Senate seat from red to blue in 2018 but lost to Suozzi in 2016, is also running for Santos’s seat.

Santos endorsed Mike Sapraicone, a retired New York Police Department detective running as a Republican, to take his seat. Sapraicone previously called Santos a “crook and a fraudster” who had “no business” being in Congress.

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“I know this is a hot take but I think the only person that can beat Suozzi since the Dems are misogynistic a**es and won’t let Anna Kaplan be their nominee, would be [Mike Sapraicone],” Santos wrote on Dec. 3, two days after he was expelled from Congress. “…I fully endorse and support Mike on taking over the seat that was robbed from me and the people of NY-3 without due process!”

Anxiety and tension are running high among Republicans, particularly with the retirements of Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Patrick McHenry (R-LA), and Rep. Bill Johnson’s (R-OH) transition to higher education. With departures set for the end of this year and early next year, the margin for error for House Republicans is essentially invisible.