Republicans losing lead over Democrats as infighting saps majority’s momentum

Republicans are slated for a tight election to keep control of the House of Representatives in November, as infighting has plagued the GOP’s narrow majority in the chamber over the last 12 months.

A Decision Desk HQ/NewsNation poll conducted from Jan. 16-18 shows that Republicans have a narrow advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, with the GOP leading 44%-43%. The GOP won the congressional ballot nationwide 50.6%-47.8% in 2022.

Republicans hold a 219-213 majority in the chamber but have been dogged by a dysfunctional conference that has had difficulty with several matters, from passing spending bills to electing House speakers.

Eight members of the House GOP joined Democrats in ousting former California Rep. Kevin McCarthy from the speakership in October, and now, some have discussed ousting House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from his leadership role.

Johnson helped push through a spending stopgap to avoid a government shutdown last week, angering the right flank of the House GOP. Some House Republicans, such as Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Chip Roy (R-TX), have teased using the motion to vacate.

To avoid further infighting and attempt to get the spending bills passed, Johnson canceled the two-week recess planned for the end of February to buy more time for negotiations.

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The GOP has also seen defeats in redistricting battles that could see it lose more districts in the election. The court-ordered addition of black-majority districts in Louisiana and other states will likely cost Republicans, as black voters tend to favor Democrats. Another state in which Republicans could face problems with redistricting is New York, where key wins in swing districts in 2022 gave the GOP its majority in the House of Representatives.

With the GOP presidential field narrowing to the final two major candidates, more attention will focus on congressional races in which the margin for error for either party to win control of the House of Representatives will be slim.