Republicans looked with hope to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s dropout and endorsement of former President Donald Trump, while Democrats looked with hope to the Democratic National Convention, both sides hoping each respective event would lead to a renewed surge in their candidates. According to a new poll, neither has come to fruition.
A new ABC News/Ipsos poll has the race at 50%-46%, Harris-Trump, a slight difference from the 50%-45% before the DNC and Kennedy dropout. Among likely voters, the scales are 52%-46%.
The DNC was a high-energy event for Democrats, with major political personalities and celebrities making appearances. Former President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama delivered passionate speeches that both registered positively with Democrats. Talk show personality Oprah Winfrey also addressed the crowd during a surprise appearance.
However, the excitement in the arena didn’t register enough with voters to put Harris’s polling over the edge of the tight race with Trump. The two have been locked in a dead heat when it comes to polling since Harris’s ascension.
The one metric where the poll did find some movement was the gender divide. Pre-convention, Harris led among women 51%-45%. After the convention, that advantage grew to 54%-41%. In turn, Trump made up for the loss with an increase in popularity with the male vote, which he now leads: pre-convention Harris led 49%-46% — now Trump leads 51%-46%.
The Trump campaign welcomed RFK Jr’s drop-out announcement and following endorsement with open arms, even bringing him on state at an Arizona Trump rally just a few hours after. The Trump team was expected to benefit from Kennedy’s drop out, since he began pulling more from Trump’s supporters than Harris’s. However, the ABC poll found that polling for third-party and independent candidates looks much the same as it did before the announcement, and 79% of voters say Kennedy dropping out has no effect on their decision.
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Harris continues to solidify her energy boost within the Democratic Party, with 93% rating her campaign positively. In contrast, 79% of Republicans view Trump’s campaign positively. In total, 56% of Americans say Harris has done an excellent job running her campaign, in contrast to 41% who believe the same of Trump’s.
Another factor playing into Harris’s favor is fear — 75% of her supporters believe it would be “a crisis” if Trump were elected, compared to 67% of Trump supporters who believe likewise if Harris were elected.