RIO GRANDE VALLEY, Texas — What was for a decade the top spot on the southern border for illegal immigration has shifted to other parts of the 2,000-mile boundary, largely driven by the threat of deportation and hostile human smugglers in the region.

The most-southern tip of the United States, the Rio Grande Valley of southeast Texas, has led all other nine southern border regions in immigrant arrests since 2013, but escalating cartel violence in Mexico and the United States sending back immigrants who cross into the region have been the driving forces behind immigrants rethinking where to cross, according to government and union officials.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security told the Washington Examiner that the Rio Grande Valley has existing infrastructure in place to receive and hold large numbers of immigrants from nearby regions and expeditiously remove immigrants by plane.

For example, since the region has historically seen a high number of Guatemalans and Hondurans immigrate, it has processes in place to quickly fly immigrants back to those countries, which over time has deterred people in those places from attempting to travel to the Rio Grande Valley.

“The RGV is also leading the southwest border in consequences delivered. We average anywhere for 10 to 15 repatriation flights a week to the northern triangle countries,” a senior regional Border Patrol official wrote in a text message. “We also have agreements with Mexico to return Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans and Haitians through the ports of entry. So that has a huge impact as well.”

Across the entire southern border between May 12, 2023, and Jan. 10, the DHS has removed nearly half a million illegal immigrants, a staggering figure that is nearly double the number of immigrants deported on a daily basis between 2014 and 2019.

But escalating cartel violence in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, across from the Rio Grande Valley, is also a consideration for immigrants who have heard the horrors of how the criminal organizations that smuggle immigrants from Mexico into the U.S. treat immigrants, according to a Border Patrol union spokesman for the region.

“They take advantage of these people. They’ll rob them, rape them, make them do awful things to each other just for a laugh or whatever. They exploit them. It’s a lot more dangerous in Reynosa than it is across from Eagle Pass,” said Chris Cabrera, a 22-year Border Patrol agent and vice president of the National Border Patrol Council union.

Starting in 2013 through 2021, the number of apprehensions in the Rio Grande Valley Sector began to surpass those of the eight other sectors across the southern border. The number of annual arrests in the Rio Grande Valley fluctuated from 90,000 people to 549,000 people in that time, according to federal data.

But border officials have noticed a marked shift that began mostly in 2023. In 2022, the Del Rio area in south-central Texas edged out the Rio Grande Valley with 480,000 total arrests that year, which could be chalked up to an exception to the norm.

Last year, the Rio Grande Valley reported fewer annual arrests than Del Rio; El Paso, Texas; and Tucson, Arizona. In the first two months of fiscal 2024, the government has recorded more immigrant apprehensions in Del Rio; Tucson; and San Diego, California, than in the Rio Grande Valley.

“Right now, there’s a lot more of the cartel wars. You have the Gulf Cartel, which was a big cartel for the longest time,” Cabrera said. “The Gulf Cartel has broken into three different factions, and the Zetas have two different factions. And then you have elements of Sinaloa [Cartel] that are coming in and trying to align with certain parts of the Gulf Cartel to wipe out the former Zetas Cartel and it’s just a big old mess.”

Border Patrol arrests of people who illegally cross into the Rio Grande Valley have dropped off significantly even in the past several weeks and months.

Last week, Border Patrol agents in the region apprehended an average of fewer than 250 immigrants per day, according to regional chief Gloria Chavez.

Cabrera added that the state’s Operation Lone Star border security initiative and the Mexican military south of the border were not major factors in why illegal immigration has shifted away from this region.

“In this area, we’ve slowed down with the people turning themselves in, but as much as everyone would like to believe it’s based on something we did or [the Texas Department of Public Safety] did and all that, I think that’s wishful thinking,” Cabrera said. “You can’t say, well, the Mexican government is doing their part. Well, then why is Eagle Pass and El Paso and Tucson getting hit so hard?”

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A spokesperson for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the federal agency that oversees the Border Patrol, said that regardless of where immigrants may illegally enter the United States, the U.S. government will impose consequences for violating federal law.

“The fact remains: the United States continues to enforce immigration law, and our borders are not open for those without a legal basis to enter the country,” said CBP. “Migrants attempting to enter without authorization are subject to expulsion under Title 8 authorities.”