Mary Rooke Commentary and Analysis Writer
Vice President Kamala Harris needs all the Electoral College votes she can get, but one ruby-red state plans to make it harder for her to earn theirs.
Nebraska and Maine are the only states that split their Electoral College votes. In April, the Nebraska GOP proposed ending the practice, which could be a game changer for former President Donald Trump.
Nebraska elects Senators and Governors based on the vote of the entire state. We should speak with a unified voice in presidential elections as well. Winner-take-all is how Nebraska can have a maximum impact. pic.twitter.com/I98oZqBQBb
— Senator Pete Ricketts (@SenatorRicketts) September 20, 2024
Traditionally, two of Maine’s four electoral votes go to the statewide winner (typically the Democrat), and one electoral vote goes to the winner in the two congressional districts (one for the Democrat and one for the Republican). Similarly, in Nebraska, two of five electoral votes go to the statewide vote winner (almost always the Republican), and one electoral vote goes to the winner in each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts, which typically goes 2-1 Republican. (ROOKE: Biden’s Problem Just Turned Into Harris’s Election Nightmare)
At the time, Republican Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen said he was open to making his state’s presidential contest a winner-take-all affair for the five Electoral College votes available but would only do so “when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.”
Maine Democrats immediately announced that if Nebraska considers changing its Electoral College rules to a winner-takes-all system (meaning Republicans are almost guaranteed all five votes), they’ll do the same. Former President Donald Trump would lose out on the one vote Republicans gain in rural Maine. They argued that it would only be fair since Democrats would lose a vote in Nebraska for Republicans to lose their vote in Maine.
Here’s where we stand after the Maine projections. Donald Trump has 266 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton has 218. pic.twitter.com/MDwyXXJuhm
— NPR (@NPR) November 9, 2016
It looks like the Nebraska GOP ran out the clock on Maine’s legislative process and is planning on pushing through a last-minute rule change that the Maine legislature will not have the time to enact before the 2024 election, giving Trump another advantage in winning back the White House.
While the movement started in the spring, a recent visit from Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham to Nebraska senators ignited the push for Pillen to call a special session to consolidate their Electoral College votes. Nebraska state Sen. Tom Brewer told KOLN-TV that Graham’s visit was to help senators “understand the national picture.”
“Depending on how the count comes up, it may very well decide who the next president [of the] United States is going be,” Brewer said. “And [Graham] just wanted us to understand the big picture, that this is a national issue, not just in Nebraska.”
It’s time to return Nebraska to winner-take-all. The Nebraska delegation stands with @TeamPillen and Speaker Arch.
Read our full letter here 👇 pic.twitter.com/VmkRSkMEmY
— Rep. Mike Flood (@USRepMikeFlood) September 19, 2024
Now you may think, what will one vote do for Harris or Trump when most swing states have ten or more Electoral College votes up for grabs? However, in a race as tight as this one, one vote could determine the White House, and both candidates understand the severity of this situation.
According to 270toWin’s 2024 presidential election map, seven swing states are currently at play for both candidates. Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). This map shows that not counting these states, Harris currently has 226 Electoral College votes, and Trump has 219. (Polls Show Kamala’s Campaign Is Headed For Disaster, And The Media Knows It)
Even if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and loses the rest plus Nebraska’s one vote, the Electoral College would be at a dead tie: 269-269.
That “just 5” electoral votes from a winner-take-all Nebraska can literally give DJT the presidency without PA/MI/WI because of a 269-269 tie equaling a win for him via congressional delegations. https://t.co/VHUyJtIJB9 pic.twitter.com/KJ9HgmInHG
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 20, 2024
Thanks to the 12th Amendment, the House of Representatives is responsible for deciding who the next president would be in the event of an Electoral College tie. Republicans have an advantage in getting to the simple 26-state majority needed to win.
Not counting the tied states of Minnesota and North Carolina, Republicans currently hold a representative majority in 26 states, while Democrats only control 22 states. However, it is likely that Republicans will also gain North Carolina in their congressional delegation in January when the new Congress is sworn in, which would increase their majority to 27. (One Red State Senate Seat Could Flip The Balance Of Power In DC)
If the Electoral College race ends in a tie, Trump has a clear advantage over Harris. Nebraska’s decision to change its rules could end Harris’s chances of winning the White House by just one vote.