Mary Rooke Commentary and Analysis Writer
Democrats are waking up to the nightmare that the 2024 election is not trending well for Vice President Kamala Harris.
While there are different avenues for both presidential candidates to win enough Electoral College votes to take the White House, Harris must win the three states that make up the “blue wall:” Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These states, also known as the “Rust Belt,” flipped to Trump in 2016 but went blue in 2020 with President Joe Biden and are still Harris’ best chance of winning in 2024.
🚨Blue Wall danger: Worry grows among top Dems that Harris is stuck, even sliding a bit, after strong convention & debate
•Her media blitz, spending advantage & largely favorable coverage don’t seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Dems say https://t.co/SkRtsv2xlt
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) October 10, 2024
Pennsylvania will likely be crucial to Harris’ victory with its 19 Electoral College votes. Still, Harris’s path in Pennsylvania is not trending as well as it did for Biden, reportedly keeping local Democrats up at night.
“The registration gap between Republicans and Democrats has absolutely collapsed in Pennsylvania over the course of the past few years, and particularly in 2024. And a significant number of those registrations that are changing are Democrat to Republican,” Charlie Gerow, a longtime political operative in Pennsylvania, told Politico. (ROOKE: Trump’s McDonald’s Visit Tears Down Thin Veil Covering Harris Campaign’s Greatest Weakness)
“Early voting is another indication. Democrats have always dwarfed Republicans because Republicans prefer to vote in-person and most of them do. But Republicans have caught on to the fact that if you bank your vote, it’s guaranteed to be cast. And so the Republican request for mail-in ballots is way, way up this year and the Democrats’ numbers simply aren’t as good.” Gerow added.
2/.@stranter at @DecisionDeskHQ wrote this in an email to friends/clients earlier this week:
“1 month ago today, our PA polling average had Harris at +1.1, and today, it’s Harris +0.3 — this trend, while slight, is consistent across all the upper Midwest states where Harris…
— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) October 10, 2024
Philadelphia City Councilmember and chair of “Black Men for Harris Pennsylvania,” Isaiah Thomas, admitted that Gerow was correct. This is problematic for Democrats as they watch Harris’ slim lead in the state collapse.
“I want to be very clear: What Charlie talked about is definitely something that’s extremely alarming and concerning. It’s a pattern that existed long before I became a member of city council,” Thomas told Politico, adding that is why the Harris Campaign has stepped up its ground game in the state.
“I think that there are warning signs around voter participation,” Thomas said.
“The concern is there. Just because I’m confident that we’re going to win doesn’t mean that I go to sleep every night without a high level of anxiety. The anxiety is there. The fear is there,” he added.
Chris Cuomo: “Harris is not a godsend, alright? You people didn’t even like her six months ago. Now, all of a sudden, she’s black female Jesus, the way Obama was black Jesus. And let me tell you something: he had a lot more going for him than Kamala Harris does.”@DailyCaller pic.twitter.com/vhlC26smr6
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 22, 2024
Democrats and Harris have reason to be concerned. Not only are Republicans gaining on Democrats in voter registration, but the deadline to register new voters in Pennsylvania ended Monday night. Couple that with Republicans’ mail-in ballot returns outpacing their 2020 numbers, and Democrats’ fears are justified. (ROOKE: In Fewer Than 10 Words, Brian Stelter Lays Bare Democrats’ White Liberal Ignorance Problem)
Republican activist and founder of Early Vote Action Scott Presler reported that in the last week, Democrats’ voter registration advantage dropped by another 14,901 voters. If you exclude inactive voters, Democrats only have a registered voter advantage of 130,848.
Pennsylvania News
A week ago, democrats had an advantage of 312,725 voter registrations.
Today, that lead has been narrowed to 297,824.
-14,901
🔵 gained 12,772 voters, while 🔴 gained 27,673 voters.
If you take out inactive voters, 🔵 – 🔴 = 130,848.
A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 21, 2024
The voter registration game run by Presler and others has seen significant positive results for Republicans, including flipping important blue counties red, like Beaver County, Bucks County and Luzerne County. While Democrats have seen an increase in voter registration in two counties, Republicans have chipped away their control in 10 still bright blue counties.
UPDATED PENNSYLVANIA Voter Registration by Party Change since 2020, reflecting today’s update.
The GOP bent 1/10 of a percent off a voter roll of nearly nine million in a single week, taking PA down to D+3.6%, and only D+2.0% on the active roll.
66 of 67 counties, including… pic.twitter.com/2vhLO7drAc
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 7, 2024
Cliff Maloney, founder of Pennsylvania Chase, reported that Republicans are ahead of where they were in 2020 with mail-in ballot returns by over 100,000 votes. In 2024, Democrats have returned 528,697 (67.26%) of their mail-in ballot requests, which is down by 123,742 ballots compared to 2020, according to Maloney. Republicans have returned 257,326 (32.74%) mail-in ballots in 2024, showing them up by 103,960 votes from 2020. (ROOKE: Feds Quietly Correct Major Election Bomb Harris Doesn’t Want Blowing Up In Her Face)
🏃♀️🏃🏃♂️THE PA CHASE IS WORKING!!!
New results show that Republicans are 100,000 returns ahead of where we were from 4 years ago
We now have 32.74% of the Dem/Rep mail in ballot split
HOLY COW!!!
2024 RETURNS
Dems: 528,697 (67.26%)
👉 down 123,742 compared to 2020GOP: 257,326… pic.twitter.com/rV3I7Idb2s
— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) October 21, 2024
A sure sign that things aren’t rosy for Harris is that corporate media is already running pieces arguing whether or not they should have left Biden in the race. Harris has struggled to connect with voters who live in these Rust Belt states. If trends hold up, Republicans could see a massive windfall come November.