Mary Rooke Commentary and Analysis Writer
Pennsylvania was once a forgone conclusion, but Former President Donald Trump is putting up a massive fight in the state, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris with few places she can turn.
When President Joe Biden stepped down, the Harris campaign used a similar Electoral College strategy as Biden by targeting the “Great Lakes states:” Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The Trump campaign is making a serious push to dismantle Harris’s “Great Lakes States” strategy, which relies on winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
In my latest for @DailyCaller , I break down his efforts in Michigan: https://t.co/P3QoyrDhhw
— Mary Rooke (@MaryRooke_) September 24, 2024
Her campaign has to secure wins in these three states to give her breathing room. If she loses Sun Belt states like Arizona and Nevada but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she will still have a chance at winning the White House. Harris didn’t expect former President Donald Trump to be able to fight her off, however, especially in Pennsylvania. (ROOKE: Trump’s Latest Moves In Critical Swing State Could Crush Harris’s Presidential Hopes)
If you look at the polling data, the state is still a very close race. Most popular pollsters show both Harris and Trump within the margin of error to win Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College Votes. For example, the latest New York Times Sienna poll gives Harris a four-point lead over Trump, but pollster Nate Cohn admitted there were signs its polling data was biased toward Democrats.
2024 Pennsylvania GE:
Harris 50% (+4)
Trump 46%
.
Harris 49% (+4)
Trump 45%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%.@SienaResearch/@nytimes, 1,082 LV, 9/11-16https://t.co/Y7UyWan3sR
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 20, 2024
Emerson College Polling has Harris only up by one point over Trump in Pennsylvania.
Political pundit Ryan Girdusky does a great job explaining this phenomenon in his substack piece. Still, the simplified answer is that Trump is likely doing much better in Pennsylvania than pollsters can identify because most people answering the polls are senior whites who lean Democrat.
The NY Times/Siena polls are very high quality but I see some very big problems:
Trump isn’t losing seniors by 12
Harris isn’t tied with white voters
Trump’s margin with non-college whites is in the 30s, not 13.I’d guess there’s some over sampling among older liberal women https://t.co/Ptk6W8siRR
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) August 10, 2024
But don’t just take polling bias as the primary source. Democrat Sen. John Fetterman warned his fellow party members that Pennsylvania was not a sure win for Harris. While speaking Saturday at The Atlantic Festival, Fetterman told the audience his state’s presidential race is closer than some might think.
“Trump has created a special kind of a hold … and he’s remade the party, and he has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said. “And I think that only deepened after that first assassination attempt.” (ROOKE: Biden’s Problem Just Turned Into Harris’s Election Nightmare)
“I joked, his signs became like the state flower — you see them everywhere,” he added. “I also want people to understand, you know, and it’s not science, but there’s energy, and there’s kinds of anger on the ground in Pennsylvania, and people are very committed and strong. Trump is going to be strong, and … we have to respect that.”
Trump isn’t in this battle alone. Republican volunteers like Early Vote Action founder Scott Pressler and The Pennsylvania Chase founder Cliff Maloney are helping Trump flip Pennsylvania red, and signs show their efforts are succeeding.
Pressler has been working nonstop to help Republicans overcome the voter registration discrepancy in Pennsylvania.
“A week ago, democrats had an advantage of 343,071. Today, that lead has been narrowed to 338,396,” Pressler said. “[Democrats] gained 7,940 voters, while [Republicans] gained a whopping 12,615 voters. Yes, our team is registering more voters than Taylor Swift.”
He also announced that in September, after four years on the ground, Republicans were able to flip several blue counties red, including Bucks County, and that Beaver County was on its way to a Republican lead as well.
PAGING @ScottPresler
Bret Baier is talking about you…
Basically all you pic.twitter.com/CNOUqcDhQS
— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) September 23, 2024
NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella announced via a mailer that Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, had flipped for Republicans by 83 voter registrations. (One Red State Senate Seat Could Flip The Balance Of Power In DC)
“Pennsylvania’s eighth congressional district is a battleground within a battleground, and it’s crystal clear that Pennsylvania voters are rejecting extreme Democrats’ failed policies. Congressman Cartwright is shaking in his boots knowing he’s too far left for Northeast Pennsylvania and that Luzerne County is ground zero for Republicans to flip this seat red,” Marinella said.
WE DID IT!
IT IS DONE!
We flipped Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, from 🔵🔜🔴.
This is monumental, earth-shattering, ground shaking news.
Thank you to EVERY single volunteer that contributed to this victory!
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) September 23, 2024
Maloney’s ballot-chasing organization hopes to counter the Democrat’s effective campaign to chase mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. In a recent “data dump,” Maloney showed his efforts were working.
“Kamala is not even close to keeping pace with Biden mail-in requests,” Maloney said. “She is down 360,101 Dem mail-in requests compared to this time in 2020. GOP requests are only down 69,963. Remember, Biden only won by 80k votes.”
In 2020, Democrats held a 776,000 mail-in ballot request advantage over Republicans, according to Maloney. That lead has now been cut almost in half, with Democrats holding a 486,000 advantage in 2024.
PA Mail-in requests by party
2020 (at this time)
GOP: 407,167
Dem: 1,183,1572024
GOP: 337,204
Dem: 823,056Dropoff
GOP: -69,963
Dem: -360,101In 2020, Dems had a 1 MILLION request advantage over GOP
That advantage is now only 485,852
— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 23, 2024
The answer to winning Pennsylvania is similar to the one that could sway Michigan: “low propensity voters.” If Trump can rally these voters out the door and into the ballot box, Harris’s blue wall in the Great Lakes states will shatter.