Rosendale to be painted as soft on border over stopgap ‘no’ vote, Sheehy allies warn

Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-MT) expected “no” vote on a short-term spending bill will be used to portray him as weak on the border should he run for Senate next year, national Republicans are signaling.

Rosendale, a second-term congressman from Montana, has not entered the race to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), a matchup he lost in 2018, but Senate Republicans are bracing for the possibility. He has privately told colleagues he plans to run despite appeals from leadership that he’d serve the party better in the House.

BIDEN CONCEDES TO DONORS ‘A LOT OF PEOPLE’ ARE ‘FOCUSED ON MY AGE’

That means their favored candidate, entrepreneur and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, could have to endure a bruising primary against Rosendale, a candidate with grassroots support and strong name recognition in Montana.

Already, Sheehy allies are previewing their lines of attack, homing in on Rosendale’s stated opposition to a deal the conservative Freedom Caucus struck with allies of Republican leadership on Sunday to extend government funding for 31 days past Sept. 30.

In exchange, the stopgap, considered a nonstarter by the Democrat-controlled Senate, would cut spending by roughly 8% for the month and include most of H.R. 2, House Republicans’ signature border security bill.

Rosendale, among the more than a dozen conservative rabble-rousers denying Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) the votes to pass the measure, has dismissed the deal as a “ploy” that will eventually lead to an omnibus. He’s calling for the House to work through its 12 annual funding bills with just 10 days until a government shutdown.

Yet that vote could have ramifications beyond the turmoil it is causing in a chamber in which McCarthy can only afford to lose four GOP votes. National Republicans see it as a vulnerability for Rosendale should he mount a run for Senate.

“Matt Rosendale is essentially teaming up with Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden to stop President Trump’s border wall and let illegal immigrants continue to flood our country. We’re going to crush him on this vote,” a national Republican strategist who works for a group opposing Rosendale said.

House GOP leadership is in talks with the conservatives opposing the stopgap, known as a continuing resolution, meaning Rosendale could still come around on the bill with further concessions. But he’s proven to be one of the most recalcitrant Republicans in McCarthy’s conference.

His office did not respond to a request for comment, but he reiterated his opposition to the continuing resolution on Tuesday afternoon on X, the social platform formerly known as Twitter.

“This didn’t arise seven days ago,” Rosendale said on Fox News hours earlier. “We’ve known for nine months we were supposed to develop the appropriations bills. They’ve known for years. They’re not doing it. I was not sent here to kick the can down the road.”

Rosendale, who celebrated the House passage of H.R. 2 in June, is hawkish on the border. He’s introduced legislation to reimpose the Trump-era policy known as “Remain in Mexico” and has called for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his “dereliction” of duty. A bill he reintroduced in February would deny further aid to Ukraine until the United States gets “operational control” of the border.

Yet, according to Kevin McLaughlin, the former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, a vote against the continuing resolution belies that record and could come back to haunt Rosendale in 2024.

“Standing with Nancy Pelosi against border funding is a curious position to take in a GOP primary, let alone in a Montana general election,” he said.

“If you were going to attack him, this would be a juicy thing to attack him on,” he added.

Doing so would mark an attempt by Rosendale’s rivals to turn what might otherwise resonate with the party’s base, an anti-establishment stand against Washington spending, into a political wedge issue.

But the focus on Rosendale, perhaps months before he even announces a decision on 2024, also underscores the level of concern among national Republicans that he will spoil the party’s chances of taking back the Senate next year.

Montana is in the top tier of states Republicans view as flippable, alongside West Virginia and Ohio. Former President Donald Trump won there in 2020 by more than 16 points, yet Tester is a formidable Democrat whose plain-speaking, centrist persona has resonated with voters in the past.

If Republicans cannot net two additional seats, or one if they retake the White House, then Democrats will retain control of the upper chamber.

“Looking at a 2024 map, there is no margin for error for Republicans,” one GOP operative said. “It’s very conceivable that we lose the White House, we lose the House, and we flip the Senate.”

“And so, it’s totally crazy to me that someone who has already lost an election to one person is going out there and putting themselves in a precarious position when the stakes are so high,” the operative added.

Party leadership believes Sheehy, a wealthy combat veteran who will self-fund his campaign, is the best bet to take Tester on, yet those same leaders understand Rosendale is popular among Montana Republicans despite his 2018 loss. Current polling has him leading Sheehy in a primary by more than 30 points.

That could all change as Sheehy introduces himself to voters, and he may have a couple of dynamics working in his favor. The deep-pocketed Club for Growth, which as recently as February signaled it would be supportive of a Rosendale Senate run, is now undecided, and the prospect of a Trump endorsement has faded in recent weeks.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Rosendale has attracted the support of some prominent conservatives, however, including former South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint. Moreover, Democrats, who view Rosendale as the less electable candidate, appear ready to “meddle” in the primary.

A new PAC with apparent ties to the party has begun airing ads critical of Sheehy. The same tactic helped elevate fringe Republicans, such as failed gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, in last year’s elections.