Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed a half-dozen electoral ratings in favor of the GOP on Thursday, but stopped short of declaring a favorite in the presidential race.
The 2024 race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden is expected to be close, with just a handful of states that will determine the next occupant of the White House.
Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio are now rated as “safe Republican” states after being previously rated as “Likely Republican,” according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
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Maine’s 2nd Congressional District changed from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.” Trump won the district’s one electoral vote in 2020 and will likely win it again this cycle.
Georgia, a critical battleground state that Biden won in 2020, moved from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” while Pennsylvania, once rated as “leans Democratic,” has now changed to a toss-up.
The Keystone State remains a crown jewel in the seven swing states Biden seeks to win to remain in the White House. It’s also home to one of the most important Senate races that will determine control of the upper chamber.
The Crystal Ball changed its rating of incumbent Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-PA) reelection campaign from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic,” a boon for Republican David McCormick who is challenging Casey.
In total, 251 electoral college votes lean toward the GOP, and 241 electoral votes favor Democrats — with Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the four toss-ups, according to Crystal Ball. At least 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.
Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, remains the “Blue Wall” that will give Biden the clearest path to victory in 2024. If Trump were to win the Keystone State and the 251 electoral votes, he would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win reelection.
Michigan currently remains a “lean Democratic” state, though it does have a contingent of Arab American voters who have publicly lambasted Biden over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
More than 101,000 voters opted to cast an “uncommitted” vote during the Democratic primary notching two uncommitted delegates to the Democratic National Committee convention in August.
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Biden and Trump are scheduled to hold their first debate of the general election on Jun. 27. Republicans will meet for their convention on July 15, four days after Trump is sentenced after being found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records.
In August, Democrats will meet for their nominating convention and the presidential race will likely remain a toss-up but any number of factors between now and then could change the contest.