Rep. Scott Perry‘s (R-PA) race for reelection is shaping up to be a closer-than-expected contest, with a GOP majority in the House of Representatives at stake.
The Cook Political Report shifted Perry’s race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up” on Friday, less than three weeks ahead of the election.
Perry, like several other House Republicans, is significantly behind his Democratic rival in fundraising, reporting roughly three times less than Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson in the last quarter.
The cash disadvantage has the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC backed by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), pouring money into ads to help Perry in the final weeks.
The Pennsylvania Republican is also trailing significantly in a poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research released last week. Stelson led Perry in the survey, 48%-39%.
“It’s become increasingly clear that the fundraising differential is taking a serious toll on the congressman. Even as Trump is on pace to win Pennsylvania’s 10th District again — he carried it by four points in 2020 — public and private polling show Perry underperforming Trump,” Erin Covey wrote for the Cook Political Report, explaining the change while noting that the current political environment nonetheless gives Perry an edge.
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Perry was first elected to the House in 2012 and is a former Freedom Caucus chairman. He won reelection in 2022, 53.8%-46.2%, over his Democratic challenger. His Keystone State congressional district includes Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and York, Pennsylvania.
The district has a partisan voting index of “Republican +5,” according to the nonpartisan news service. It voted for Trump in 2020 but also voted for Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) in the state’s gubernatorial race in 2022.